Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3890-1.4140
Euro 1.6040 -1.6290
Sterling 1.8730-1.8980
WTI Oil (opening level) $75.38
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4010 ( 0.7138 )
USD/CAD holds steady as traders await a possible US-Iran deal, which could give direction to the pair. The US Initial Jobless Claims report is due later today.
In the daily chart, USD/CAD holds a constructive near-term bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting underlying demand on dips despite the recent pullback from the upper band.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the Bollinger middle band near 1.4070, followed by the upper Bollinger Band around 1.4155, where recent advances have stalled. On the downside, immediate support is seen around 1.4010, ahead of the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3980; a deeper slide would expose the more significant floor at the 100-day SMA around 1.3912, where buyers are likely to defend the broader uptrend.
Headlines
· Iran and Oman agreed overnight to establish a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, raising expectations of higher Middle East energy exports and marking the clearest step yet toward reopening the waterway.
· US private payrolls (ADP) rose just 44,000 in July, the smallest gain in six months and well below the 70,000 forecast, keeping Friday's non-farm payrolls report the week's key print.
· The ISM Services PMI ticked up to 54.1 and the S&P Global Services PMI jumped to 54.6, the fastest pace in nine months, though price pressures intensified on tariff-linked input costs.
· Euro area producer prices fell 0.3% month-on-month in June, the first drop in four months, led by a 1.5% fall in energy prices.
· The UK Composite PMI rose to 52.2, its strongest reading since April, though employment kept falling even as output price inflation eased.
Key Points
· Macro: Iran and Oman's Hormuz shipping-corridor deal capped a soft-data week ahead of Friday's payrolls.
· Equities: US markets were mixed near records, Europe edged to another high, Asia fell as the AI rally cooled.
· Volatility: Chip-sector jitters resurfaced overnight after a near-record close; vol stayed contained with jobs data ahead.
· Digital Assets: Crypto equities firmed on Hormuz optimism while spot eased; Hashdex's ETF wind-down marked a sector milestone.
· Commodities: Gold and silver rally hard, crude oil remains lower
· Fixed Income: US treasuries remain firm on soft US employment data, Japan’s JGB’s rally on strong JGB auction
· Currencies:Muted action as USD and JPY remain near weaker side of recent price action.