Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4060 - 1.4310
Euro 1.5980 - 1.6230
Sterling 1.8730 - 1.8980
WTI Oil (opening level) $90.64
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4185 ( 0.7050)
1.4200 stopped USD/CAD twice on Tuesday, and the session high just above it is the pair's first trade over that level since July 8. The late-June high near 1.4250 is the top of the range the pair left in mid-July.
Monday's sixth straight daily gain went through 1.4150, which makes it the first floor. September 24's low just under 1.4100 is the run's most recent pullback low.
While 1.4100 holds on a closing basis, with 1.4250 as the first objective and 1.4300 as the second. A dip into 1.4150 wouldn't change the call, since the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is near 98 and has almost no room left to rise. A daily close under 1.4100 ends the long.
Headlines
· NY Fed President John Williams pushed back against expectations for an imminent follow-up Fed hike, saying there is “no urgency” after September’s move and that policymakers have time to assess incoming data. He still sees one further hike as potentially appropriate later this year, with inflation around 3.7% and still well above target, but expects inflation to ease gradually. The comments saw markets pare October hike expectations and helped pull short-end Treasury yields lower.
· US September Consumer Confidence came in far weaker than expected, with the overall index at 81.9 for the month versus 89.0 expected and a revised 88.6 for August, hitting the lowest level in over 12 years. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components fell sharply.
· According to the August JOLTS US job openings survey, openings fell by 256,000 to 7.08 million in August 2026, a five-month low and below forecasts, with broad sector and regional declines except in the South. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 5.1 million, respectively.
· Japan’s industrial production fell 1.7% m/m in August 2026, its second straight decline and well below forecasts for a 1.7% rise, as weaker export demand hit autos, machinery, and petroleum/coal products. Output still rose 3.4% y/y, easing from 3.9% in July.
Key Points
· Macro: Hiring demand cooled to a five-month low while Japanese output slipped again
· Equities: Wall Street fell for a second day with yields higher, though Asia found its footing
· Volatility: Equity fear gauges held steady while bond market volatility did the real moving
· Digital Assets: Tokens and miners drifted lower while the exchange sector won a clearing licence
· Commodities: Crude eased after Saudi flows resumed while bullion and silver rebounded. Flat September for BCOM index
· Fixed Income: Fed’s Williams caps yields with dovish comments
· Currencies: US dollar rally tamed slightly by Fed rhetoric. JPY strength returns.