Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4070-1.4320
Euro 1.6070-1.6320
Sterling 1.8810-1.9060
WTI Oil (opening level) $67.56
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4198 ( 0.7043 )
Gold jumped on Wednesday, briefly trading above the key USD 4,100 level after rebounding from an intraday low of USD 3,960, as Fed Chair Warsh dampened speculation that the Fed may raise interest rates this year, saying inflation risks have eased in recent weeks alongside lower energy prices. Meanwhile, the one-year US inflation swap has fallen sharply from a May peak of 3.5% to around 2.1%, reinforcing expectations that inflation concerns may gradually fade and potentially helping establish a floor under precious metals. Ahead of Friday's US holiday, the market's focus turns to the US jobs report, the dollar, and Treasury yields.
Headlines
· Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations have eased, but reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability. He said that the FOMC will “have a good family fight” at the July FOMC meeting.
· Separate data showed US private-sector hiring slowed more than expected last month, with the ADP saying the slowdown reflected weaker demand and labor supply constraints. Annual pay rose 4.4% for job stayers and 6.6% for switchers.
· Euro-zone inflation undershoots: Euro-area CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, below the 3% consensus estimate and down from 3.2% in May, aided by retreating oil prices. Core and services inflation also surprised to the downside. ECB policymakers at Sintra showed no consensus on the next rate move.
· The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 in June 2026 from 54.0 in May, below expectations, signaling slower growth. Output and new orders cooled, employment stayed just in contraction, and the prices index dropped but remained high. Firms cited persistent inflation, geopolitical risks, higher-rate concerns, and trade policy uncertainty as headwinds.
Key Points
· Equities: US and Europe paused as chip weakness spread, while Asia followed lower as Korea’s AI winners reversed sharply
· Volatility: Equities dipped on chip weakness despite Warsh's dovish inflation comments, SKEW jumped ahead of payrolls Thursday
· Digital Assets: Crypto bounced off quarterly lows even as Bitcoin ETFs logged their worst month on record
· Commodities: Gold gains on easing inflation fears; Brent extends decline towards USD 70
· Fixed Income: US treasuries choppy ahead of US jobs data. Japan’s long yields rise sharply.
· Currencies: Sterling trades at highest level versus euro in a year.