Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3530-1.3780
Euro 1.5950-1.6200
Sterling 1.8340-1.8590
WTI Oil (opening level) $87.23
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3657 ( 0.7322 )
USD/CAD retains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 100-day exponential moving average and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle line. Price is hovering just above support at 1.3638, suggesting the recent slide is pressing the lower edge of the volatility envelope, while the Relative Strength Index around 35 hints at soft but not yet oversold momentum.
On the downside, immediate support around 1.3638, where a clear break would open the door to an extension of the decline toward March lows below 1.3550. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day EMA at 1.3770, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 1.3822, while a sustained recovery above these caps would be needed to ease bearish pressure and allow a broader rebound toward the 1.4000 region.
Headlines
· US Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh will testify in his first nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee today at 1400 GMT. Warsh will make opening remarks followed by a series of questions from Senate lawmakers – with questions on Fed independence and President Trump’s pressure to cut rates considered the hottest topics. Warsh has also argued in favour of cutting the Fed’s balance sheet size, which is at odds with the recent resumption of regular Fed treasury purchases that resumed in December. It is unsure whether his nomination can be approved by the time Fed Chair Powell’s term as chair ends on May 15 as Republican Thom Tillis has vowed he will not vote to approve Warsh until the US Department of Justice drops the case against Powell for supposedly lying about the use of funds related to the renovation of Fed buildings.
· Iran will send a delegation to Islamabad for new US talks before the ceasefire ends, reversing its earlier stance. Trump says he’s unlikely to extend the truce without a deal and will keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked until then. Key disputes include the strait’s status, Iran’s nuclear program, and regional tensions.
· New Zealand’s annual inflation was 3.1% in March 2026, exceeding a forecast 2.9% and above the RBNZ target lifting bets on a July interest-rate hike. The Reserve Bank provisionally estimates inflation will accelerate to 4.2% in the current quarter, with local economists reckoning the CPI could push even higher and stay above the top of the target for some time
· Canada’s annual inflation rose to 2.4% in March 2026 from 1.8%, just below the 2.5% forecast, mainly due to a jump in energy costs linked to Middle East conflict. Energy inflation swung to 3.9% from -9.3%, lifting transport inflation to 3.7%, while shelter and recreation/education also picked up.
· Germany’s producer prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in March 2026, the smallest drop in a year, as energy prices declined less sharply and mineral oil products rose. Non-durable consumer goods fell on cheaper food, while capital, durable consumer, and intermediate goods increased. Excluding energy, prices rose 1.3%. Month-on-month, producer prices jumped 2.5%, driven by a 7.5% surge in energy costs.
Key Points
· Equities: Asia rose, while Europe fell and Wall Street paused, as Iran headlines pushed oil higher but did not break risk appetite.
· Volatility: VIX stays below 20, Iran talks vs risk, earnings + retail sale
· Digital Assets: BTC steady, ETH softer, IBIT/ETHA weak, COIN/MSTR strong
· Fixed Income: Treasury yields steady near lower end of recent range ahead of Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh.
· Currencies: USD slightly firmer after Monday rally was rejected. All eyes on Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh. NZD firms on hot CPI print.
· Commodities: Oil and gold ease ahead of US–Iran talks; surging China import supports silver