Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3990-1.4240
Euro 1.5920-1.6170
Sterling 1.8660-1.8910
WTI Oil (opening level) $89.82
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4111 ( 0.7087 )
USD/CAD keeps the bullish vibe, with the price holding above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, the pair slips back under the 20-day Bollinger SMA, signaling a loss of immediate topside traction after the recent spike. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 47.9 sits just below the midline, hinting at directionless momentum in the near term as neither bulls nor bears currently dominate.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.4130, ahead of a stronger barrier at the upper Bollinger Band near 1.4262. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at approximately 1.4000 offers the first line of support, with the 100-day SMA at 1.3875 reinforcing a deeper demand zone if selling pressure extends.
Headlines
· The mood turned sharply risk-averse as two forces collided: renewed doubts over whether the roughly 725 billion dollars of hyperscaler AI spending will pay off, crystallised by Alphabet's raised 2026 capital-expenditure guidance, and a surge in Brent crude above 100 dollars a barrel on the widening US-Iran conflict. A gauge of the Magnificent 7 shed about 797 billion dollars of market value in a single session.
· Higher energy costs have revived the prospect of a Fed rate hike. Money markets now price roughly a 35% chance of an increase at next week's FOMC meeting, up from about 10% a week ago, with a hike fully priced by September. The 28 to 29 July meeting is increasingly treated as a live decision rather than a formality.
· In trade policy, the US began collecting duties of 10% to 12.5% on imports from around 60 countries from today, its biggest step yet to rebuild the tariff wall struck down by the Supreme Court. Elsewhere, Japan's June inflation rose to 1.7%, the highest since December, keeping Bank of Japan tightening in view ahead of its 31 July meeting, while the ECB left rates unchanged on Thursday after June's hike.
Key Points
· Equities: Twin AI-valuation and oil shocks drove the S&P 500 to its worst session in a month, with Asia and the Kospi following sharply lower
· Volatility: VIX jumped back above 18 as the AI and oil shocks hit; the FOMC and mega-cap earnings are next week's tests
· Digital Assets: Crypto equities fell with tech while bitcoin held above 65,000; the SEC settled its long-running Coinbase case
· Commodities: Brent closed above 100 dollars for the first time since May on the widening Iran conflict, while gold slipped on higher real yields
· Fixed Income: Treasury yields hit 2026 highs for a fourth day as oil revived inflation and Fed-hike bets
· Currencies: The dollar firmed on oil and safe-haven flows; the yen sat at multi-decade lows and the kiwi lagged