Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3520-1.3770
Euro 1.6010-1.6260
Sterling 1.8610-1.8860
WTI Oil (opening level) $63.47
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3650 ( 0.7326 )
USD struggles amid bets for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. However, softer Crude Oil prices undermine the commodity-linked CAD and act as a tailwind for spot prices.
From a technical perspective, this week's failure near the 1.3700 mark – the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall in January – and the subsequent slide favors the USD/CAD bears. Moreover, the 200-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart trends modestly lower, with spot price hovering around it. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence line remains below the Signal line and the histogram contracts in shallow negative territory suggesting bearish pressure.
There is a cautious tone. The 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 1.3651 acts as immediate resistance, and a decisive push above would open room toward 1.3704, or the 50% retracement, which should cap the recovery attempt. A rejection under this barrier would keep rebounds shallow and leave the focus on maintaining traction above the 200-period SMA to avoid renewed downside pressure.
Headlines
· The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for the US rose to 48.8 in February 2026, exceeding expectations. The Six-Month Economic Outlook increased to 43.8, Personal Financial Outlook improved to 56.9, and Confidence in Federal Economic Policies grew to 45.7.
· The S&P Global Australia Services PMI jumped to 56.3 in January from 51.1 in December, showing the fastest growth in nearly four years. The increase was due to strong service activity, new orders, and export demand. Employment grew amid labor constraints, while business confidence fell and inflation pressures eased.
· A new AI automation tool from Anthropic triggered a selloff across software, financial services, and asset management stocks. The move began ahead of the US open after details appeared on Anthropic’s website, with the tool’s ability to automate tasks such as contract reviews and legal briefings intensifying competitive concerns flagged by Morgan Stanley analysts.
· New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate rose to 5.4% vs. 5.3% expected and 5.3% in Q3, although the higher number was due to a higher participation rate as employment change numbers were positive.
· Michael Burry, who bet against the US housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, warned that Bitcoin’s plunge could deepen into a self-reinforcing “death spiral,” inflicting lasting damage on companies that have spent the past year stockpiling the token.
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. tech slid on artificial intelligence disruption fears, Europe was flat, Japan hit records while Hong Kong edged higher.
· Volatility: VIX back at 18, short-dated hedging active, macro and earnings in focus
· Digital assets: Crypto stabilises, IBIT inflows selective, ETHA modest support
· Fixed income: US treasuries and Japanese government bonds steady
· Currencies: USD comeback was rejected Tuesday. JPY continues to crawl weaker ahead of Sunday election in Japan.
· Commodities: Gold trades back above USD 5,000; Oil rises on Mideast flare-up