Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3540-1.3790
Euro 1.5870-1.6120
Sterling 1.8180-1.8430
WTI Oil (opening level) $72.77
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3664 ( 0.7319 )
Markets are in a classic risk-off mode and bracing for the broader geopolitical fallout from the US-led military operation against Iran. USD is up across the board, global equity markets are selling off, gold surged by over 4%, and Brent crude oil prices soared as much as 13%. Most major sovereign bond yields climbed as the spike in crude oil prices pushed up inflation expectations, outweighing the supportive effect of haven flows into bonds.
Headlines
· Joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran have escalated tensions in the Middle East and impacted global markets, from oil and gold and silver prices to risk sentiment more broadly. Concerns are rising over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil passage. Tehran claims it's open, but shipping companies are rerouting, in part on prohibitive additional insurance costs. Iran attacked US assets in neighboring countries like the UAE and Iraq and even civilian infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates. Early Monday, Israel extended its attacks to targets in Lebanon.
· In January 2026, US producer prices increased by 0.5%, exceeding the expected 0.3%. Service prices rose 0.8%, with notable gains in equipment wholesaling. Goods prices dropped 0.3%, mainly due to gasoline. Yearly producer prices rose 2.9%, and core prices climbed 3.6%, both above forecasts.
· Germany's inflation rate dropped to 1.9% in February 2026, below the 2.0% forecast, and the harmonized index fell to 2.0%, meeting the ECB's target. Goods inflation decreased to 0.8%, with sharper energy price declines and slower food inflation. Services inflation stayed at 3.2%, and core inflation remained at 2.5%
Key Points
· Equities: Global equity markets absorbing the impact of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. US futures down over 1% and European futures opening down over 2% from Friday close.
· Volatility: Geopolitical escalation, oil sensitivity, VIX near 20, skew elevated
· Digital Assets: Risk-off tone, BTC ~$65.9k, ETH ~$1.93k
· Fixed Income: US treasury yield rise slightly from low Friday close, with benchmark 10-year yield still below key 4.00% level.
· Currencies: US dollar surges as the clear safe-haven among currencies after attacks on Iran. Norwegian krone higher on surge in oil prices.
· Commodities: Brent crude rise 6 dollars per barrel on US-Israel attack on Iran. Gold up over USD 100 per ounce.