Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3760-1.4010
Euro 1.5940 -1.6190
Sterling 1.8660 -1.8910
WTI Oil (opening level) $81.72
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3889 ( 0.7200 )
USD/CAD pair turns bearish beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June upswing. This backs the case for further losses to the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 1.3814, ahead of the 78.6% level at 1.3695 and the structural floor near 1.3544.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the 100-day SMA at 1.3920 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3980. Further up, the 23.6% retracement at 1.4083 and the cycle high around 1.4249 form a broader resistance band that would need to be overcome to neutralize the current bearish bias.
Headlines
· US producer prices were flat in July against consensus for a 0.2% monthly rise, with the core measure up 0.2% against 0.3% expected and final-demand prices up 4.7% year on year from 5.5% in June. Landing a day after the in-line CPI, the report consolidated expectations of a Federal Reserve hold at next month's meeting and extended the relief that has carried equities through the week.
· US Initial weekly jobless claims rose 9,000 to 209,000 in the week to 8 August, above the 204,000 consensus, a further sign of gradual cooling in the labour market.
· UK GDP grew 0.4% in Q2, matching expectations after 0.6% in Q1. June GDP rose 0.3% m/m, beating flat forecasts. Meanwhile, UK manufacturing output fell 0.5% m/m in June 2026, worse than May’s revised -0.2% and below expectations. Annual growth slowed to 0.5% from a revised 2.0%, missing the 1.2% forecast.
· The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but the energy premium that has kept headline inflation risk alive has started to deflate, with crude giving back part of its gains as the week closes without fresh escalation.
· Today's calendar centres on US consumption. July retail sales land at 8.30 this morning, with consensus near 0.2% to 0.3% on the month and a 0.2% rise excluding autos, followed by the preliminary August University of Michigan sentiment survey at 1400 GMT. Next week brings the FOMC minutes, and the Jackson Hole symposium follows on 27 to 29 August under a financial-innovation theme.
Key Points
· Macro: Producer prices undershot and handed the disinflation story a second leg into retail sales
· Equities: Wall Street set records on chip strength while Applied Materials was faded after hours
· Volatility: Index protection stayed cheap but refused to cheapen further as stocks pushed to records
· Digital Assets: Crypto idled beneath the equity rally while Goldman bought into crypto income funds
· Commodities: Oil and metals ease as profit-taking follows recent gains
· Fixed Income: Yields eased across the curve on soft producer prices and an orderly bond auction
· Currencies: Extremely rangebound market in G3 majors as markets look around for a catalyst.