Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3440-1.3690
Euro 1.5990-1.6240
Sterling 1.8380-1.8630
WTI Oil (opening level) $64.41
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3575 ( 0.7367 )
The USD/CAD pair holds beneath the declining nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 50-day EMA, keeping a bearish bias. The short-term average sits below the medium-term gauge, and both slope lower, reinforcing downside pressure.
On the downside, the initial support lies at the “Support Bounce” level around the psychological level of 1.3500. A break below this level could extend the broader decline toward the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.3220.
Rebounds would need validation from a close back above the nine-day EMA at 1.3607 to ease selling pressure. A sustained push through the upper descending channel boundary around 1.3690, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3743, would signal a stronger recovery and target the two-month high of 1.3928, recorded on January 16.
Headlines
· US added 130K payrolls in January 2026, far exceeding December's revised 48K and the 70K forecast. Health care added 82K jobs, social assistance 42K, and construction 33K. Manufacturing grew by 5K jobs. Federal jobs fell by 34K and financial activities by 22K. Other sectors showed little change. BLS revisions reduced nonfarm payrolls by 862k as of March 2025, exceeding the 825k expected but less than the initial 911k. This indicates a weaker labor market and raises doubts about January's job growth sustainability.
· China's annual inflation fell to 0.2% in January 2026 from 0.8% in December, below the 0.4% forecast. Food prices dropped 0.7%, non-food inflation slowed to 0.4%, and core inflation rose 0.8%, the weakest in six months. Monthly CPI held at 0.2%, under the 0.3% expectation.
· US January private nonfarm payrolls saw average hourly earnings rise by 15 cents (0.4%) to $37.17, exceeding the 0.3% forecast. Production and nonsupervisory employees' earnings grew by 12 cents (0.4%) to $31.95. Annually, earnings increased by 3.7%, surpassing the 3.6% forecast.
· Japan’s producer prices rose 2.3% year-on-year, the slowest since May 2024, easing from 2.4% in December and matching expectations. Costs moderated in several sectors, while prices for chemicals and metals remained weak. Monthly inflation edged up to 0.2%.
· Trump is mulling an exit from the North American trade pact, raising uncertainty during US, Canada, and Mexico talks. He asked aides about withdrawing but hasn't confirmed any plans; a White House official calls the speculation baseless.
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. stocks stayed flat on jobs data, Europe hit a record as energy beat tech, Asia edged higher on China support.
· Volatility: VIX contained, macro data and auction in focus, mild upside skew
· Digital Assets: Macro-sensitive consolidation, ETF outflows
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields rise on strong US jobs report. Long Japanese bonds in heavy demand as JGB yield curve flattens.
· Currencies: Japanese yen strengthens again, but then consolidates. USD mixed after strengthening post US jobs report.
· Commodities: Sugar slumps on weight-loss demand shock; gold and crude track macro and geopolitics