Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4070-1.4320
Euro 1.6060-1.6310
Sterling 1.8640-1.8890
WTI Oil (opening level) $69.98
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4193 ( 0.7046 )
USD/CAD trades flat, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds comfortably above the 20 day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.4065. The positioning reinforces an underlying uptrend, hinting that bullish pressure remains strong but increasingly vulnerable to a corrective pause or minor pullback.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the November 5 high at around 1.4140, followed by the EMA 1.4065, where buyers could attempt to defend the broader advance on any retracement.
Looking up, the pair needs to resume its upside and extend it above the June 24 high at 1.4248 to rise further towards the April 2025 high around 1.4300.
Headlines
· Japan’s retail sales climbed 5.3% year-on-year in May 2026, the fastest since November 2023, beating forecasts of 3.2% and up from a revised 2.8% in April. Growth was led by autos, machinery, other goods, department stores, pharmaceuticals, and food, supported by government stimulus, while non-store retail, fuel, and clothing declined. Month-on-month, sales rose 1.9% after a 2.1% gain in April.
· China’s industrial profits rose 18.8% year-on-year to CNY 3.14 trillion in January–May 2026, slightly above the 18.2% gain in January–April, supported by AI-related investment and policy backing for advanced industries. Profits increased across ownership types and were led by strong gains in manufacturing, utilities, and mining, especially non-ferrous metals, computer and communication equipment, and chemicals. In May alone, profits grew 21.1% from a year earlier, down from April’s 24.7%.
· The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 49.5 in June 2026 from 48.9, still below 50 but above May’s record low of 44.8. Lower gasoline prices helped sentiment, with expectations rising to 50.7 and current conditions at 47.7. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.6%, and long-run expectations fell to 3.3%.
· US and Iran agreed to halt further strikes ahead of peace talks in Doha this week, after several days of tit-for-tat attacks on commercial vessels. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up since an interim peace deal, but many shipowners remain cautious, with hundreds of vessels still stranded in the Persian Gulf.
· Year-ahead US inflation expectations were 4.6% in June 2026, unchanged from the initial estimate and down from May’s 4.8%, but still above 3.4% in February before the Iran conflict. The five-year inflation outlook was revised down to 3.3% from 3.4%, below May’s 3.9%.
Key Points
· Equities: US and Europe slipped on tech weakness, Asia sold off harder as AI chip nerves stayed in charge
· Volatility: Chipmaker rotation defined Q2's final week, Warsh at Sintra and payrolls set the Q3 tone
· Digital Assets: BTC steadied post-ceasefire, crypto equities split with COIN up and MSTR lower as MiCA deadline arrives July 1
· Commodities: Oil lower as ships keep crossing Strait of Hormuz; Gold sentiment remains weak after tumultuous week
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields and European yields ended last week on a low note ahead of key week for US data.
· Currencies: USD rally eased last week ahead of key incoming data in holiday- shortened trading week in the US (markets closed Friday)