Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4020-1.4270
Euro 1.6090-1.6340
Sterling 1.8580-1.8830
WTI Oil (opening level) $76.09
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4146 ( 0.7069 )
USD/CAD reached a 14-month high of 1.4159 overnight. It is now aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending channel, signaling a persistent bullish bias. A sustained break above this confluence resistance zone would open the door for further gains.
The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.4038. A break below the short-term price average would weaken the price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3940. Further declines would explore the region around the 50-day EMA at 1.3850.
Headlines
· US-Iran Deal: While shipping has begun returning to the Strait of Hormuz, easing global energy supply concerns and lifting risk sentiment across assets, the ink has barely dried on the MOU before the first challenge emerged. US Vice President Vance has delayed his planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran that were intended to mark the start of nuclear negotiations. Allegedly, the move follows Iran's cancellation of the same meeting and the proposed 60-day negotiation period with the US after Israel reportedly refused to withdraw from Lebanon and halt attacks, a move Tehran claims violates the MOU's first clause.
· Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing: The June Philly Fed general business conditions index rose to 10.3, above the prior month's -0.4 and slightly ahead of the 10.0 consensus. New orders surged to 27.3 from -1.7, though the prices paid component climbed to 53.2 from 47.9, reinforcing inflation concerns.
· Bank of England: The MPC voted 7-2 to hold rates at 3.75%, with two dissenters favouring a 25bp hike to 4.00%. The BoE noted the recent fall in oil prices was "encouraging" on inflation. UK unemployment came in at 4.9% for the three months to April, below the 5.0% consensus.
· Swiss National Bank: The SNB held rates unchanged. Switzerland's Federal Expert Group revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast down to 0.9% from 1.0%, citing higher energy price headwinds.
· Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham won a decisive victory for the ruling Labour party in a by-election that delivers him a seat in the UK parliament and with it a pathway to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for his job. Burnham's victory is seen as a significant challenge to Starmer's leadership, with Burnham having made clear his designs on the prime minister's job and calling the win a "final chance to change" for the Labour party.
Key Points
· Equities: US chips led, Europe was mixed, Asia rallied in Japan and Korea while China and Hong Kong were closed.
· Volatility: VIX falls, geopolitical relief, hawkish Fed, institutional hedging
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin below $63k, ETH near $1.7k, ETF put hedging, mixed institutional positioning
· Commodities: Oil rebounds on US-Iran talks postponement; Gold remains on the defensive
· Fixed Income: US treasury reaction to FOMC meeting holds, as market eyes August or September FOMC hike.
· Currencies: USD surge extends post-FOMC. USDJPY to multi-year highs with no intervention threat yet in evidence.
· Macro: US Juneteenth holiday – markets closed