Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3650 - 1.3900
Euro 1.5920 - 1.6170
Sterling 1.8550 - 1.8800
WTI Oil (opening level) $95.76
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3770 ( 0.7262 )
In the one-hour chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3790, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the downward trend-line resistance at 1.3805 and the cluster of moving averages overhead. The 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3816 and the 200-period SMA at 1.3848 both sit above spot, suggesting rallies remain capped for now.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the downtrend line at 1.3805, followed by a horizontal barrier at 1.3815 and the 100-period SMA near 1.3816, with the 200-period SMA around 1.3848 acting as a stronger cap if buyers push higher.
On the downside, the first notable support comes at the horizontal level of 1.3760, where a break would expose further weakness and reinforce the prevailing bearish bias on this timeframe.
Headlines
· The tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran continues. US struck Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, triggering Iranian missile launches toward Jordan and warnings to tankers near Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran-backed Houthis hit Saudi energy facilities, and with Hormuz disrupted Brent trades near USD 100 per barrel and diesel near USD 200 per barrel
· Japan’s Reuters Tankan manufacturing index rose to +21 in September 2026, the highest since December 2021, driven by strong semiconductor and data center demand. Electronics jumped to +39, textiles and paper to +13, while steel and nonferrous stayed at -13. Non-manufacturers’ sentiment edged up to +29 on solid domestic consumption, with both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expecting +27 in three months.
· US one-year inflation expectations stayed at 3.6% in August 2026, while gas, food, medical care, college costs and rent expectations all rose. Three- and five-year inflation expectations were 3.2% and 3.0%. Expected earnings growth ticked up to 2.9%, and the perceived chance unemployment will be higher in a year climbed to 44.4%, the highest since April 2020.
· Germany’s trade surplus jumped to €21.3bn in July 2026 from €15.4bn in June, the biggest since August 2024, as imports fell far more than exports. Exports slipped 0.8% m/m, with EU sales down and US-bound exports up sharply, while imports dropped 5.7%. The January–July surplus rose to €125.8bn from €122.8bn a year earlier.
Key Points
· Macro: Strikes on Iranian tankers pushed energy costs higher and hardened expectations of another rate rise
· Equities: US stocks fell as oil and rate fears rose, Europe was flat, Asian chips outperformed despite stronger oil
· Volatility: Equity fear stayed low but the nine day gauge jumped as inflation and policy risk approached
· Digital Assets: Miners rallied on data centre demand while treasury and platform names fell with equities
· Commodities: Crude trades near USD 100 on fresh supply concerns, driving gold lower ahead of US inflation prints
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields remain near cycle highs as high energy prices weigh
· Currencies: JPY strength renews late Tuesday and early Wednesday. USD broadly softer