Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3540-1.3790
Euro 1.5960-1.6210
Sterling 1.8480-1.8730
WTI Oil (opening level) $97.89
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3665 ( 0.7318 )
USD/CAD holds below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader tone mildly bearish despite the recent bounce from last week’s lows. Price is trading just above the 20-day Bollinger middle band, suggesting a tentative attempt to stabilize, while the Relative Strength Index around 48 remains broadly neutral and hints at consolidative rather than impulsive momentum for now.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 100-day EMA at 1.3738, with the Bollinger upper band near 1.3756 reinforcing a nearby supply zone that needs to give way to ease downside pressure. On the downside, the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 1.3665 offers immediate support ahead of the lower Bollinger band around 1.3575, where a break would likely re-open the path toward a deeper corrective slide.
Headlines
· Canada lost 18,000 jobs in April 2026, missing expectations for a 15,000 gain. Full-time employment fell by 47,000 while part-time rose by 29,000; the employment rate edged down to 60.5%, with youth and core-aged male unemployment up and Ontario adding 42,000 jobs.
· Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to his proposal to end the 10-week conflict as “totally unacceptable”, prolonging the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
· The US added 115K jobs in April 2026, beating forecasts but down from a revised 185K in March, with gains in health care, transport/warehousing, and retail partly offset by losses in information, federal government, and manufacturing. Revisions left February–March employment 16K lower, pointing to a cooling but still resilient labor market.
· China’s exports rose 14.1% y/y to a record USD 359.4bn in April 2026, far above forecasts, as firms stockpiled components amid Iran-war cost fears. US shipments rebounded 11.3% despite tariffs, while Jan–Apr exports climbed 14.5% to USD 1.34tn, with sales to the US down 10.2%. Trump-Xi meeting will happen this week 14-15 May.
· The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low of 48.2 in early May 2026, below April and forecasts, as current conditions slumped on price concerns. About one-third of consumers cited gas prices and 30% tariffs.
· US year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5% in May 2026 from 4.7% in April, while the five-year outlook dipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, preliminary May University of Michigan survey data showed.
· China's factory prices grew at the fastest pace since the pandemic as the Iran war raises costs and leaves profits under pressure, with producer prices rising 2.8% in April from a year earlier. Consumer inflation unexpectedly climbed to 1.2% from a year earlier, driven by higher motor fuel and gold prices, despite food prices slumping.
Key Points
· Equities: US records and chips led, Europe softened on geopolitics, Asia stayed mixed as Korea’s AI rally kept drawing flows.
· Volatility: VIX contained, oil and Iran tensions rise, CPI and retail sales ahead
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin above USD 80k, crypto equities attract bullish call flow
· Currencies: US dollar, NOK firm on latest surge in crude oil prices
· Commodities: Oil rebounds, gold weakens on Trump’s Iran rebuff; hedge fund rush into agriculture continues
· Fixed Income: Global yields rebound on latest surge in crude oil prices