Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3860-1.4110
Euro 1.6100-1.6350
Sterling 1.8450-1.8790
WTI Oil (opening level) $61.76
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3997 ( 0.7144 )
USD/CAD is directionless around 1.4000 with technical support offered at 1.3961 (200-day moving average) and resistance at 1.4080 (October 14 high). Canada August retail sales report is unlikely to generate much financial market volatility
USD/CAD risks are skewed to the downside because of a possible US-Canada trade deal next week and a pro-growth Canadian budget on November 4.
Headlines
· The Trump administration is considering restricting exports to China of items using U.S. software—like laptops and jet engines—due to Beijing's rare earth export curbs, Reuters reports. This proposal matches Trump's October 10 threat of 100% tariffs and controls on "critical software." Meanwhile, Beijing is querying U.S. semiconductor firms about their operations in China, focusing on pricing and profits, as reported by Bloomberg News.
· The Trump administration sanctioned Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil to pressure Moscow to stop its war in Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for a ceasefire, highlighting the companies' role in funding the war. The move which includes subsidiaries marks the first time the Trump administration has imposed direct sanctions on Russia over its aggression in Ukraine.
· According to a WSJ exclusive, some quantum computing companies are in talks with the Trump administration on the US government taking stakes in their company, with Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and IonQ said to be involved discussing the government becoming a shareholder in exchange for funding for research.
· According to Bloomberg's Wasson, the US House Ways and Means Committee Chair Smith stated that lawmakers are considering a stopgap bill lasting until December 2026.
Key Points
· Equities: US slipped on fresh China-curb headlines and chip weakness. Europe mixed. Asia softer with Hong Kong and China down
· Volatility: VIX steady in high teens. Earnings in focus ahead of Friday CPI
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ether hold firm. ETF flows stabilise with ETHA steady and IBIT mixed
· Fixed Income: Yields little changed ahead of US CPI tomorrow
· Currencies: USD sideways as JPY weakens broadly again
· Commodities: Crude surges as U.S. tightens pressure on Russia; gold holds above $4,000, supply squeeze lifts platinum