Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3590-1.3740
Euro 1.5970-1.6220
Sterling 1.8430-1.8680
WTI Oil (opening level) $101.59
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3710 ( 0.7294 )
Oil prices climbed for a second day as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed Trump casting doubt over a ceasefire with Israel signalling the war is not over. Attention this week will also turn to the monthly market outlooks from the three major oil forecasting agencies, starting today with the EIA, followed by OPEC and the IEA on Wednesday.
Silver jumped to a two-month high on Monday, rising more than 7% as technical signals triggered fresh buying from hedge funds and other momentum focused investors. With gold struggling to keep pace following Modi’s call for a pause in gold buying, the gold-silver ratio slumped to 55, the lowest since 1 March. Overall, gold remains rangebound, with support established ahead of USD 4,500, while resistance at the 50-day moving average, currently near USD 4,757, was challenged and rejected during the Asian session.
Headlines
· Kevin Warsh’s Fed Board nomination cleared an initial Senate hurdle in a 49–44 vote, with a final confirmation vote to succeed Jerome Powell as chair expected later this week.
· Trump warned the US–Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s proposal, raising fears Hormuz will stay effectively closed, as Iran seeks an end to the US naval blockade and some sanctions relief. Trump is weighing renewed military action and vessel escorts, while Saudi Aramco’s CEO says weekly losses of about 100 million barrels could delay market normalization into next year.
· UK Prime Minister is under significant Labour party pressure to resign and will hold a cabinet meeting Tuesday morning that is seen as possibly pivotal for his government’s future.
· Japan’s household spending fell 2.9% y/y in March 2026, a fourth consecutive drop and worse than the expected 1.3% decline, with broad weakness across food, utilities, clothing, and transport. Spending on housing, household goods, healthcare, and education rose, but overall outlays fell 1.3% m/m, reversing February’s 1.5% gain.
· US existing home sales ticked up 0.2% to a 4.02 million annual rate in April 2026, below the 4.05 million forecast, as higher mortgage rates weighed. Sales fell in the West but rose in the Midwest, while inventory increased 5.8% to 1.47 million (4.4 months’ supply). The NAR cited improved affordability as incomes outpaced home price gains.
Key Points
· Equities: US edged higher on AI optimism, Europe lagged on oil and luxury weakness, Asia rose as Korea’s chip rally widened.
· Volatility: VIX firmer, oil and CPI in focus, downside hedging persists
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady above USD 81k, ETF flows mixed, crypto equities outperform
· Fixed Income: Global bond yields rise ahead of US CPI release.
· Currencies: USD up, JPY down ahead of US CPI as yield rise. Sterling eyes shaky Starmer government
· Commodities: Oil remains bid, silver surges on fresh momentum buying, copper hits record high