Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4040-1.4290
Euro 1.6110-1.6360
Sterling 1.8640-1.8890
WTI Oil (opening level) $75.27
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4168 ( 0.7058 )
USD/CAD is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pair recorded a fresh 14-month high of 1.4193, which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A sustained break above this confluence resistance zone would open the door for further gains.
The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.4070. A break below the short-term price average would weaken the price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3960. Further declines would explore the region around the 50-day EMA at 1.3863.
Headlines
· Even as US-Iran talks continued in Switzerland, Trump threatened new military action against Iran at the weekend if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel and warned Iran against closing the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iranian media to claim Tehran had suspended talks, but with Iran’s foreign minister claiming “major progress” early Monday in ending Lebanon war after Qatari and Pakistani negotiators mediation.
· UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is cited by many sources as likely on the brink of resignation, which will pave the way for a new Labour leadership election, with the likely winner seen as Andy Burnham, who secured a strong victory at a by-election for an MP seat in Makerfield, a district in Greater Manchester.
· Canada’s retail sales are estimated to have risen 1% in May 2026, a fifth straight gain. April sales grew 0.5% to C$73 billion. Gasoline and fuel sales jumped 5.1% to C$7.51 billion on higher prices and a 0.8% volume rise. Sales also increased for health and personal care, building materials, and furniture/electronics/appliances, while food and beverage store sales fell 2% to C$13.27 billion.
· German producer prices rose 2.2% year-on-year in May 2026, the fastest since May 2023 but below the 2.5% forecast, driven by higher intermediate goods (4.2%) and energy (2.5%), especially mineral oil (34.9%). Capital and durable consumer goods increased 2.0%, while non-durables fell 1.7% on cheaper food. Excluding energy, prices were up 2.3%. Month-on-month, producer prices rose 0.3%, down from 1.2% and below the 0.7% forecast.
Key Points
· Equities: Global equities started the week cautiously as geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment while Japan bucked the softer tone.
· Volatility: PCE inflation, US-Iran talks, oil prices, PMIs, Micron earnings
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin above $64k, options positioning
· Commodities: Oil falls as market prices in progress on US-Iran talks; gold rebounds while copper remains rangebound
· Fixed Income: US short treasury yields open Monday at new cycle highs as market eyes FOMC hike soon.
· Currencies: US dollar firms again early Monday, with USDJPY and USDCHF near cycle highs.