Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3540-1.3790
Euro 1.5910-1.6260
Sterling 1.8330-1.8580
WTI Oil (opening level) $90.32
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3665 ( 0.7318 )
USD/CAD is seeing a tentative stabilization rather than a clear bullish shift.
Hence, any attempted recovery is more likely to confront an immediate hurdle at . retracement point of 1.3680, followed by the 50% retracement at 1.3735 and the 200-period EMA at 1.3761. A sustained break above these levels would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and open the way toward 1.3790 en route to 1.3858.
Headlines
· US-Iran peace talks are stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed after Iran refused talks and vowed not to reopen the route while US naval interceptions continue. Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, pending a unified Iranian proposal.
· The impact of the Iran conflict on oil supply will linger for months, even if a deal restores shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to major oil traders. Market participants warn that rebalancing flows will take time, and that prolonged disruption could force prices higher - potentially to levels that risk tipping the global economy toward recession. With supply losses effectively locked in for now, the market is set to face increasing strain if a resolution is delayed, and some caution that transit through the Strait may not fully return to normal.
· US retail sales rose 1.7% in March 2026, beating the 1.4% forecast and marking the fastest growth since March 2025, led by a 15.5% jump in gasoline station receipts amid higher fuel prices. Most major categories posted gains, and core retail sales climbed 0.7%, above the 0.2% forecast.
· Japan’s trade surplus widened to JPY 667.0 billion in March 2026 from JPY 529.8 billion a year earlier, but missed the JPY 1,106 billion forecast. Exports rose 11.7% to a record JPY 11,003.3 billion, outpacing imports, which grew 10.9% to JPY 10,336.3 billion amid strong domestic demand after late-2025 stimulus.
· Fed Chair nominee Warsh said there is a short window to bring inflation down, the Fed’s balance sheet should be smaller and avoid long-term Treasuries, and his disagreements with Powell are purely policy-related. He denied reports Trump pushed him to cut rates, saying he never sought such commitments. Warsh added that inflation is improving but more work is needed and argued the Fed lacks legal authority to issue a digital currency and should not pursue one.
· US private employers added an average of 54,750 jobs per week in the four weeks to April 4, 2026, up from a revised 40,250 and marking a fifth straight week of improving hiring and the highest pace since ADP’s weekly tracking began in September 2025.
Key Points
· Equities: US and Europe slipped on geopolitics, while Asia held up better as Japan led and AI-linked names stayed in demand.
· Volatility: VIX below 20, macro and earnings focus
· Digital Assets: BTC and ETH firmer, ETHA inflows, IBIT outflow
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields jumped on fresh rise in crude oil and Warsh nomination hearings, but eased back later.
· Currencies: US dollar pushed back slightly lower after a modest rally on Iran War uncertainty and Kevin Warsh nomination hearings Tuesday
· Commodities: Oil advance curbed by demand destruction; gold and silver rebound on ceasefire extension.