Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3920-1.4170
Euro 1.5970-1.6220
Sterling 1.8840-1.9090
WTI Oil (opening level) $79.52
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4039 ( 0.7123 )
The US dollar weakened for a third consecutive session after softer-than-expected June CPI and PPI data reversed the pre-release gains driven by renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions and expectations of further Fed rate hikes. The US Index has slipped lower, with broad-based losses being led by strength in Sterling, the Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies, as well as the Swiss franc.
Headlines
· The US launched more airstrikes on Iran with the aim to reduce its ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The interim US-Iran peace deal has effectively collapsed, with both sides accusing each other of violations and Iran threatening vessels transiting the strait. The renewed tensions have lifted crude and especially fuel prices prompting a warning from the IEA that the global economy is in peril if the waterway isn’t reopened withing weeks.
· US producer prices fell 0.3% month-on-month in June 2026 (vs 0% expected), after a revised 0.6% rise in May—the first decline since August 2025. Goods prices dropped 1.4%, led by a 12% fall in gasoline, while services rose 0.2%. Year-on-year, PPI increased 5.5% (vs 6.2% expected), and core PPI rose 0.2% on the month, with the annual core rate at 4.7%.
· The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 10 points to 15.6 in July 2026, indicating stronger activity. New orders, shipments, employment, and the workweek increased, supply availability worsened, and price pressures remained elevated but eased slightly. Firms remained optimistic about the outlook.
· Andy Burnham, expected to be confirmed as UK prime minister on Monday, is set to choose a fiscally conservative finance minister. Reports that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is the frontrunner for the Treasury have reassured markets, easing worries he might pick Ed Miliband, who is seen as more fiscally expansionary.
Key Points
· Equities: US stocks advanced on banks and Apple, Europe was flat, Asia sold off as memory-chip volatility spread across the region.
· Volatility: Front-end vol slid on soft inflation as an Asian chip selloff clouded the tone before TSMC
· Digital Assets: Crypto firmed on cooler inflation, ether leading, as Japan advanced a path to spot ETFs
· Commodities: Wheat jumps on Black Sea attacks, crude and gold steady, copper hits one-month high
· Fixed Income: Treasury yields fall across the curve after soft CPI and PPI data
· Currencies: The dollar continues to drift; EURGBP hits one year high