Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3850-1.4100
Euro 1.6100-1.6350
Sterling 1.8640-1.8890
WTI Oil (opening level) $80.17
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3977 ( 0.7155 )
The US dollar sold off as hopes for a durable Iran war ceasefire washed over global markets, driving crude oil prices and US treasury yields lower
USD/CAD pair is holding a bullish near-term bias as it extends above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and supports the pair to test the immediate barrier at the six-month high of 1.3969, recorded on June 9, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3990.
The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3900. A break below the short-term price average would weaken the price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to explore the region around the 50-day EMA at 1.3785, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3780. Further declines would expose the 1.3481, the lowest level since October 2024, which was recorded on January 30.
Headlines
· US and Iran have reached an interim accord to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz – where nearly 600 vessels are waiting to exit - paving the way for 60 days of talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. The agreement includes a ceasefire and relief from sanctions targeting Iran's overseas oil sales, but details such as financial incentives and the removal of sanctions remain unclear. Officials from the two countries will meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the agreement, with key sticking points left for the next stage of talks, including the removal of sanctions and financial incentives for Iran.
· The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9 in early June 2026 from 44.8 in May, beating expectations of 46, with the rebound helped by easing gasoline prices and strongest among lower-income consumers. Views on personal finances and business conditions improved but remain well below January and year-ago levels. Year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 4.6% and long-run expectations to 3.4%, though inflation concerns remain elevated.
· US year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.6% in June 2026 from 4.8% in May, while the five-year outlook dropped to 3.4% from 3.9%, according to preliminary University of Michigan data.
Key Points
· Equities: US and Europe rallied on peace hopes, Asia jumped as lower oil and AI strength lifted risk appetite.
· Volatility: Iran peace optimism, VIX retreats, Fed week ahead
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin rebounds, ETF inflows return, Fed meeting in focus, hedging remains elevated
· Commodities: Oil tumbles and hard assets rally on interim peace deal; weeks of fund selling leave positioning lean
· Fixed Income: Global bonds rally on hopes for durable Iran war ceasefire as crude oil prices retreat.
· Currencies: USD sells off on hopes for durable Iran war ceasefire.