Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4010-1.4260
Euro 1.6120-1.6370
Sterling 1.8280-1.8530
WTI Oil (opening level) $60.71
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4134 ( 0.7075 )
USD/CAD technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bullish bias, with the pair moving upwards within the ascending channel pattern.
The short-term price momentum is strengthening as the pair rises above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just below the 70 level, reinforcing the bullish bias. Any further gains would push the USD/CAD pair into overbought territory and signal a potential near-term correction.
Further advances would likely explore the area around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 1.4220.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the psychological level of 1.4100, followed by the nine-day EMA of 1.4038. A break below this level would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3941, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3930
Headlines
· The White House stated it currently has no interest in selling NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell chips to China.
· The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell 9.1% to 43.9 in November 2025, missing expectations and hitting its lowest point since June 2024. This marks the third month below the neutral 50 mark. Investor confidence dropped 3.1% to 58.6, while non-investor sentiment fell 10.4% to 38.0, widening the gap to 20.6 points. Economic, personal financial, and federal policy outlooks all weakened, and the Financial-Related Stress Index rose 3% to 65.2, indicating high financial strain. Persistent inflation, high food prices, tariff worries, and cautious monetary policy are key issues affecting sentiment.
· The US trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July 2025, it's largest in four months as the deficit “normalizes” in the wake of tariff impacts, exceeding the expected $75.7 billion and June's $59.1 billion. Exports edged up 0.3% to $280.5 billion, with increases in nonmonetary gold and civilian aircraft, while imports rose 5.9% to $358.8 billion, led by nonmonetary gold and telecom equipment. Major deficits were with Mexico ($16.6 billion), Vietnam ($16.1 billion), China ($14.7 billion), and Taiwan ($13.5 billion). Deficits with the EU, India, and Canada were $8.6 billion, $5.5 billion, and $5.4 billion, respectively.
· The US Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) held steady at 57.4 in October 2025, reflecting continued sector growth. Inventory levels fell (-5.6 to 49.5) and warehousing utilization slowed (-8.8 to 56.5), likely reflecting the start of holiday sales, reducing warehousing tightness and increasing transportation activity.
· Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, won the New York mayor election on a promise to tackle New York City’s affordability crisis. The election attracted the highest level of voter interest since 1969. Democrats registered their biggest political victories since their loss to Donald Trump a year ago with a series of wins besides New York in Virginia, New Jersey, and California
Key Points
· Equities: Tech-led selloff in the U.S., Europe softer with cyclicals lagging, Asia weaker with Hong Kong tech hit
· Volatility: Data risk this week, Vol implied/realised gap remains wide, higher skew
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin flows weak, Ethereum under pressure, Alt-coins follow broader trend
· Currencies: US dollar and Japanese yen strength eased overnight, Sterling slumped on Chancellor Reeves' ambiguous pre-budget briefing
· Commodities: Gold rebounds ahead of ADP, US stockpile jump weighing on crude
· Fixed Income: Modest rally in US treasuries, given weak risk sentiment in risky assets. High yield corporate bond spreads widened sharply