Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3890-1.4140
Euro 1.6080-1.6330
Sterling 1.8280-1.8530
WTI Oil (opening level) $60.39
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4012 ( 0.7136 )
USD trades higher against CAD for the second consecutive, returning to levels right above the 1.4000 psychological level, and trading practically flat on the weekly chart. The Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and moderate risk aversion are buoying the USD against most of its main peers.
USD bounced from weekly low of 1.3890 following the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The bank met expectations and trimmed its Federal Funds rate to a three-year low in the 3.75%-4% range, but Chairman Powell rattled markets, affirming that a December rate cut is far from a done deal, which sent US Treasury yields and the US Dollar higher.
Furthermore, the framework agreement between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping has allowed to extension of the trade truce between the US and China. Trump has pledged to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports in exchange for keeping rare earth trade flowing and resuming purchases of US soybeans, which has provided additional support to the US Dollar.
Headlines
· US and China agreed a one-year truce: the US cut the fentanyl tariff from 20% to 10% and extended the pause on reciprocal tariffs; China will resume soybean purchases and rare-earth exports. It stabilises relations but leaves core disputes intact.
· ECB held rates for the third time in October, showing confidence in the eurozone economy and easing inflation. The refinancing rate stays at 2.15% and deposit rate at 2.0%, with inflation near the 2% target. Risks persist from global trade and geopolitical tensions.
· Eurozone economy expanded by 0.2% in Q3 2025, surpassing forecasts of 0.1%. France experienced a 0.5% rise due to increased exports, while Spain grew 0.6% with robust consumption and investment. Germany and Italy stagnated. Annual GDP climbed 1.3%, reducing pressure on the ECB to consider rate cuts amid global uncertainties.
· Germany's inflation rate fell to 2.3% in October from 2.4% in September, surpassing the anticipated 2.2%. Slower price growth in goods, especially food, and accelerated deflation in energy influenced the drop, while services inflation rose slightly, maintaining core inflation at 2.8%. Monthly consumer prices rose by 0.3%.
Key Points
· Equities: Tech-led U.S. drop as AI capex jitters hit mega-caps, Europe fractionally lower, Asia mixed with Hong Kong softer
· Volatility: PCE & euro CPI in focus; VIX high-teens; month-end flows
· Digital Assets: ETF outflows weigh on IBIT/ETHA, watch PCE for flows shift
· Currencies: US dollar strong across the board
· Commodities: Third monthly gain led by grains and metals
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields nudge higher after Wednesday’s FOMC-inspired surge