Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3960-1.4210
Euro 1.5940-1.6190
Sterling 1.8720-1.8970
WTI Oil (opening level) $80.86
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4086 ( 0.7099 )
Oil prices jumped almost 10% on Monday - their biggest one-day gain in more than three months - after President Trump reinstated the blockade on Iran and demanded a 20% toll on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent extended its advance during the Asian session, rising a further 1.1% to USD 85 per barrel for the first time in a month, supported by short covering from wrong-footed traders and renewed concerns over Persian Gulf supply. Attention is now turning to China and whether it will once again help contain prices by limiting demand, after crude oil imports fell to a near-decade low last month.
Headlines
· Brent toped USD 85 per barrel after Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% reimbursement on all cargo passing through. Iran sees any challenge to its authority in the strait as a breach of the interim peace agreement, and the renewed blockade may prompt further attacks on commercial vessels. US Central Command is reportedly planning multiple days of strikes on Iran, hurting hopes for a quick shipping recovery and reviving global inflation fears.
· The crude rally reignited inflation concerns, but treasuries and the dollar steadied as traders awaited Tuesday’s US consumer price index data. Money markets are now pricing in 50% odds of a Fed rate hike in July as Governor Christopher Waller said officials may need to raise rates to tame price pressures.
· UK like-for-like retail sales rose 1.7% y/y in June 2026, below the 2.9% forecast and down from 3.4% in May, the weakest since February. World Cup matches and a heatwave lifted clothing, cooling products, food, drink, and pubs, while non-food sales grew 1.2% on strong online demand. Overall spending rose 1.9%, with essentials up 2.2% and travel steady, but the BRC warned that politics and the Iran conflict may weigh on future sales.
· China’s exports and imports grew faster than expected in June, as surging semiconductor prices and strong global demand for hardware used to power AI data centres boosted trade across Asia. Exports rose 27% from a year earlier, while imports surged 36%, leaving a trade surplus of USD 125.6 billion. Of particular note was a further sharp decline in crude oil imports to near a decade low, constrained by the war in the Persian Gulf and an abrupt slowdown in domestic demand.
Key Points
· Equities: US stocks fell, Europe held flat, while Asia recovered from early losses as oil and chip volatility dominated
· Volatility: Oil-driven Fed-hike bets and an Asian chip selloff pressured futures ahead of Tuesday's CPI
· Digital Assets: Crypto-linked equities softened with broader tech, while Circle's new bank charter advanced stablecoin oversight
· Commodities: Wrong-footed shorts and Gulf supply fears drive oil higher; gold shows resilience despite rate concerns
· Fixed Income: Treasuries steady after oil-related fall
· Currencies: Dollar struggle to find bid despite geopolitical uncertainty