Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3910-1.4160
Euro 1.6160-1.6410
Sterling 1.8540-1.8790
WTI Oil (opening level) $62.22
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4029 ( 0.7128 )
CAD came under pressure overnight when Trump announced he is ending trade negotiations as retaliation for Ontario sponsored anti-tariff ads in the the USA.
This is not going to be good for CAD!
More weakness is likely in the CAD as easing in interest rates by the BoC- is expected next week. We already have trade uncertainty and higher than expected inflation numbers and existing tariffs from the USA.
The only positive for CAD are higher oil prices, now that Russia oil has sanctions against it.
I see 1.4100 and higher in the near future.
Headlines
· Trump said he is halting trade negotiations with Canada as he has been angered by an anti-tariff advertising campaign sponsored by the Canadian province of Ontario, which is airing ads in the US that include clips of President Ronald Reagan speaking against tariffs.
· Japan's CPI rose to 2.9% in September 2025 from 2.7% in August as expected, driven by higher electricity and gas prices. While price growth eased or stabilized across various sectors, education costs further decreased. Food prices rose 6.7%, slowing from 7.2%, with rice prices seeing the smallest yearly increase. Core inflation rose to 2.9%, aligning with expectations. BOJ's Hajime Takata renewed his call for an interest rate hike due to easing tariff concerns and progress toward the inflation target.
· US existing home sales rose 1.5% to an annualised rate of 4.06 million in September 2025, driven by lower mortgage rates and better housing affordability. Single-family home sales increased by 1.7%, while condos and co-ops held at 370,000. Sales rose in the Northeast, South, and West but declined in the Midwest. Inventory rose 1.3% to 1.55 million units. The median home price increased by 2.1% to $415,200, marking the 27th consecutive month of price gains. Year-on-year, sales rose 4.1%.
· Crude is heading for a sharp weekly advance after U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest producers, which together export around 3 mb/d. Russian crude flows to India are set to plunge, while Chinese refiners have paused purchases. From testing USD 60 a week ago, Brent now trades above USD 65 as wrong-footed short sellers are forced out — and the feared supply glut may prove smaller than expected if sanctions persist.
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. advanced on tech and energy strength. Europe rose with luxury and energy. Asia firm with Japan and Hong Kong higher into key policy and data
· Volatility: VIX cools to 17.3. Vol term-structure normalizes. Inflation & PMI data in focus
· Digital Assets: BTC >111k. ETH near 4k. CZ pardon lifts mood. Revolut gains MiCA license. ETF inflows firm
· Currencies: USD, Scandies remain firm, JPY weakens further
· Commodities: Strong week in energy offset precious metal weakness
· Fixed Income: US Treasury yield rebound ahead of US CPI release