Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3740-1.3990
Euro 1.6050 -1.6300
Sterling 1.8770 -1.9020
WTI Oil (opening level) $80.17
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3866 ( 0.7212 )
CAD remains at the weaker side of the recent range on the risk of a widening US-Canada trade spat as the US side is said to be weighing further tariffs after Canada’s tit-for-tat response to the latest US tariffs imposed on a range of Canadian goods.
In the daily chart, USD/CAD is holding below the 20-period exponential moving average at 1.3909 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3901, which keeps the near-term bias bearish.
On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3819, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the 78.6% level near 1.3703 and the prior cycle base marked by the 100% retracement at 1.3555. On the topside, initial resistance is clustered around the 50.0% retracement at 1.3901 and the overhanging 20-EMA at 1.3909, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 1.3983 and the 23.6% level at 1.4084; only a sustained break above these layers would ease the current downside pressure.
Headlines
· Oil fell as Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary joint maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, with talks aimed at a permanent traffic and security framework. Pakistan’s army chief visited Tehran to support diplomacy, Qatar said its mediation continues, and new US measures on Iran were milder than expected, stopping short of secondary sanctions. Meanwhile, Russian agency RIA reported that the US and Iran are close to a ceasefire deal that would include ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
· Australia July CPI surprised to the upside, with the headline reading 3.5% YoY versus a drop to 3.3% expected and 3.8% in June, while the core readings got the most attention as the “trimmed mean” measure rose 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY versus 3.6% expected and 3.6% in June.
· The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey data for August saw a bifurcation as the Present Situation index rebounded from a revised five-year low in July, while the Expectations index fell sharply to 68.2 from 74.0. It was the lowest reading since January. The overall index was almost steady at 89.4 versus 90.2 expected and 90.2 in July.
· US July New Home Sales fell to a 607k annualized pace versus 620k expected, but the June data was revised up sharply to 678k from 628k originally reported.
· The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index rose 2.1% year-over-year in June 2026, the fastest since June 2025 and above the 1.7% forecast, but real prices fell for the 13th month as 3.5% inflation outpaced gains. Chicago (6.9%), New York (4.8%) and Cleveland (4.1%) led increases, while Seattle (-2.0%), Las Vegas (-1.9%) and Denver (-1.2%) declined.
· Germany’s economy grew 0.3% in Q2 2026, revised up from 0.2% but down from 0.4% in Q1. Exports rose 2.0%, outpacing 1.5% import growth, while domestic demand edged up 0.1% after a 0.3% fall. Investment stayed weak, with gross fixed capital formation down 0.2%, as machinery and equipment fell 1.4% and construction rose 0.1%. Year-on-year, GDP grew 1.0%, up from 0.7% in Q1.
· Canada imposed 15%–50% tariffs on about USD 20 billion of US imports after trade talks collapsed, while the US plans 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, parts and steel from January 1, 2027. Markets cut Bank of Canada rate-hike expectations despite higher energy prices. In response, the Trump administration is said to be weighing additional trade penalties, including higher tariffs and other measures.
Key Points
· Macro: Cheaper crude and hopes of a Gulf reopening set the tone before heavy data
· Equities: US and European equities advanced as oil and yields eased, Asian stocks traded firmer but remained cautious ahead of Nvidia.
· Digital Assets: Coins firmed and the listed miners rallied hard on record fund inflows
· Commodities: LME copper hits fresh record high; oil falls on signs of a US-Iran offramp; gold consolidates
· Fixed Income: Global bonds rally on steep sell-off in crude oil, punching yields lower
· Currencies: Japanese yen finds modest support on lower bond yields. CAD lower on US trade spat, AUD jumps on AU CPI.