Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3610-1.3860
Euro 1.6060-1.6310
Sterling 1.8470-1.8720
WTI Oil (opening level) $91.81
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3730 ( 0.7283 )
Headlines
· Washington and Tehran are weighing a ceasefire extension to allow more peace talks, while the US naval blockade keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and markets on edge. Iran has warned it could retaliate by suspending shipments in nearby waters, and a second round of talks is expected to focus on reopening the strait and Iran’s nuclear program.
· US businesses pulled back on hiring and spending due to uncertainty from the Iran war, according to the Federal Reserve's beige book report.
· Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn't step down when his term expires on May 15. On Tuesday, Kevin M. Warsh will make his case to the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees the Fed and wields significant power over his ability to clinch a confirmation. That leaves the administration with only 24 days to get Mr. Warsh through an initial committee vote before the full Senate takes up his candidacy.
· Australia March Employment Change was +17.9k overall vs. +20k expected and the Unemployment Rate was steady near 4.3%. Fully time employment growth was a robust +52.5k for the month, while Part time employment dropped -34.6k.
· BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates despite the energy shock from the Iran conflict, noting markets got ahead of themselves with rate hike bets.
· ECB officials are said to be leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged in April, postponing their verdict on whether the Iran war fallout warrants a response.
· Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities are prepared for bold action on foreign exchange if needed after discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
· US import prices rose 0.8% m/m in March 2026 after 0.9% in February, below the 2% forecast, with fuel up 2.9% and nonfuel imports up 0.6%. They were 2.1% higher y/y, the biggest rise since December 2024.
Key Points
· Equities: Wall Street hit records, Europe slipped on earnings misses, and Asia stayed firm as peace hopes and chip demand lifted sentiment.
· Volatility: Record highs, easing VIX, Iran diplomacy, oil risk, downside hedging
· Digital Assets: Risk-on tone, BTC above 75k, IBIT/ETHA strength, altcoin participation, constructive flow
· Fixed Income: Global bond yields steady
· Currencies: USD weakness continues, AUDUSD hits multi-year high, JPY volatile on Ministry of Finance intervention talk.
· Commodities: Oil steady; silver supported by another annual deficit