Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3910-1.4160
Euro 1.5910-1.6160
Sterling 1.8860-1.9110
WTI Oil (opening level) $82.03
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4030 ( 0.7128 )
The US dollar is broadly firmer on safe-haven demand after the weekend's US-Iran escalation, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies.
Oil traded higher after the US-Iran conflict escalated over the weekend and Iran halted vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. WTI traded above $84 overnight. Separately, a drone strike suspended loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast, adding further supply disruption risk.
Headlines
· The US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed, with Iran reporting the interception of four vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the US confirming a third service member killed in two days. Attacks have spread to infrastructure, including an Iranian strike on a Kuwait Petroleum oil facility, keeping energy supply risks elevated.
· The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 54.4 in July, its highest since February and above expectations, helped by lower fuel prices and broad-based gains in buying conditions. One-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2%, while long-run expectations held at 3.3%.
· US industrial production rose 0.1% in June, below the 0.2% forecast, with manufacturing flat. Housing starts rose 19% to an annualised 1.427 million units, a three-month high driven by a 76% jump in multi-family starts, while single-family starts slipped for a third month.
· Andy Burnham was confirmed as UK Labour leader after an uncontested race and is expected to become prime minister next week. Markets are focused on his choice of Chancellor, with Shabana Mahmood seen as frontrunner, easing fears of a looser fiscal stance.
Key Points
· Equities: US stocks fell with chips, Europe slipped modestly, while Asia split between a Korean rout and a China rebound.
· Volatility: Middle East escalation and the chip selloff lifted vol into a heavy earnings week
· Digital Assets: Spot held steady while miners tracked the tech retreat and stablecoin rulemaking slipped
· Commodities: Brent tops $91 on Hormuz disruption while gold holds near $4,000
· Fixed Income: Front end under pressure as oil revives inflation and rate-hike bets
· Currencies: Dollar firms on safe-haven demand; yen near a four-decade low keeps intervention risk live