Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3800-1.4050
Euro 1.5990-1.6240
Sterling 1.8530-1.8780
WTI Oil (opening level) $89.38
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3922 ( 0.7183 )
Gold stabilised after a two-day slump that saw prices break below key technical support, triggering additional selling from short-term momentum-driven traders. However, rising expectations of further US rate hikes, together with higher bond yields and a stronger dollar, continue to create a challenging backdrop for bullion. These headwinds are currently overshadowing longer-term supportive themes, including central bank demand, fiscal sustainability concerns, and ongoing reserve diversification away from the US dollar..
Headlines
· Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks, easing fears of a wider conflict and energy-driven inflation. President Donald Trump said both sides were seeking an immediate ceasefire and that final negotiations were progressing.
· Australia’s consumer sentiment slipped into “deeply pessimistic” territory in June after the Consumer Sentiment Index fell 2.9% to 80.6 points – one of the weakest seen in the 50-year history of the survey - as households struggle with cost of living pressures and concerns emerge over the outlook for the housing market following tax changes. Meanwhile Australia’s May business conditions were unchanged from a month earlier while confidence where higher than expected. National Australia Bank abandoned its call for an August RBA rate hike, saying that the next move from the central bank was more likely to be a cut, with the timing uncertain.
· China's trade surplus jumped to USD 105.4 billion in May, the biggest since January, as exports jumped more than 19% from a year earlier, topping forecasts as booming demand for artificial intelligence hardware offsets disruptions from the war in Iran, while imports soared over 27%.
· US one-year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 3.5% in May from 3.6%. Consumers see slower price growth for gas, medical care, and college, but faster for homes, food, and rent. Three- and five-year expectations were steady at 3.1% and 3%. Expected earnings growth stayed at 2.7%, spending growth fell to 5%, and unemployment expectations edged down to 43.2%.
Key Points
· Equities: US chips rebounded, Europe was broadly flat, and Asia recovered after Monday’s AI-driven selloff.
· Volatility: VIX falls, CPI ahead, rebound test, defensive skew, hedging demand
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin rebounds, ETF outflows, selective optimism
· Commodities: Oil falls, gold rises as Israel and Iran halt hostilities.
· Fixed Income: US treasury yield rise tamed slightly as crude oil price surge eases, Key May US CPI release up on Wednesday.
· Currencies: US rally partially reverses on recovering risk sentiment. AUD weak.