Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3920-1.4170
Euro 1.6050 -1.6300
Sterling 1.8760-1.9010
WTI Oil (opening level) $80.57
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4046 ( 0.7119 )
WTI Crude oi traded above USD 82 per barrel earlier today, bouncing from Monday’s steep sell-off below a USD 80/bbl as Trump called his latest offer on terms to Iran the country’s "last chance,".
Gold remains mired in the middle of a tight 3,960-4,170 range that has been established over the last several weeks, with traders uninspired by the backdrop.
Headlines
· Iran said talks to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing, after Trump called off a planned strike and called his latest offer "Tehran's last chance," adding he expects a full reopening of the Strait.
· The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July from 53.3, topping forecasts for the strongest expansion since May 2022, with faster output, solid new orders and a return to job growth.
· The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 53.9 in July, matching June for a 12th straight month of expansion, though momentum softened with slower new orders and weaker exports.
· US construction spending fell 0.1% in June to an annualised $2.17 trillion, missing expectations as residential activity declined; first-half spending was down 3.5% year-on-year.
· Germany's retail sales fell 1.1% month-on-month in June, the sharpest drop since May 2025, while Swiss CPI cooled to 0.4% year-on-year in July, the weakest since March.
Key Points
· Macro: Iran talks resume as strong US manufacturing data and Friday's payrolls frame a cautious week.
· Equities: US and European equities rallied on cheaper oil and AI strength, while Asian markets turned mixed as Korean chip volatility persisted.
· Volatility: Iran de-escalation and AI earnings drove a Monday rally, though Asian chip volatility keeps VIX subdued into payrolls.
· Digital Assets: Crypto equities extended Monday's rally as sentiment improved, while Hashdex became the first US spot bitcoin ETF to close.
· Commodities: Oil bounced back from Monday's steep drop. Gold rangebound while copper surged to multi-week high.
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields rebound slightly from Monday's drop as risk appetite returned. New high in short JGB yields.
· Currencies:The yen gave back some intervention-driven gains while the dollar held broadly steady overnight.