Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3520-1.3770
Euro 1.5930-1.6180
Sterling 1.8440-1.8690
WTI Oil (opening level) $94.72
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3647 ( 0.7328 )
The USD/CAD pair holds around mid-1.3600s and remain close to a one-week top ahead of crucial employment details from the US and Canada this morning.
Hopes for a potential US-Iran peace deal keep a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the safe-haven USD and cap the upside for the USD/CAD pair. However, a fresh leg down in Crude Oil prices is seen undermining the commodity-linked CAD and acting as a tailwind for the currency pair. Traders also seem hesitant and opt to wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Canadian jobs data.
From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair holds a constructive near-term bullish bias as it trades above the 100-period Simple Moving Average
Momentum indicators, hint that upside pressure could persist as long as the currency pair defends its nearby floor.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.3708, with further hurdles at the 50.0% level at 1.3757 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.3807. A break above these would expose the 78.6% retracement at 1.3876 and the cycle high region near 1.3965.
On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-period SMA at 1.3653 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.3648, with a deeper pullback targeting the structural base around 1.3550.
Headlines
· US forces said they intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks on three Navy destroyers as the vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman. This is a further testing the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.
· Japan’s nominal cash earnings rose 2.7% year-on-year in March 2026, slowing from a revised 3.4% gain in February and missing the 3.2% consensus forecast. Real wages rose 1.0%, down from February’s revised 2.0% increase. Regular/base pay rose 3.2%, while overtime pay increased 1.9%.
· US one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.6% in April 2026, the highest in a year, while three- and five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Expected gasoline-price inflation fell sharply to 5.1% from March’s spike, but uncertainty around inflation expectations increased. Expected earnings growth rose to 2.7%, while the perceived probability of higher unemployment rose to 43.9%, the highest since April 2025.
· US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000 in the week ended May 2, still below the 205,000 consensus forecast and consistent with a firm labor market. Continuing claims fell by 10,000 to 1.766 million in the prior week, a two-year low.
· The US Court of International Trade ruled against Trump’s latest 10% global tariffs. The ruling was narrow, blocking enforcement only for two importers and Washington state, after the court found that the administration had not met the statute’s “large and serious” balance-of-payments threshold.
Key Points
· Equities: US and Europe fell on energy and earnings pressure, Asia weakened as renewed US-Iran clashes lifted oil
· Volatility: VIX subdued, oil and Iran tensions in focus, payrolls ahead
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin below USD 80k, ETF outflows pressure sentiment, crypto equities weaker, defensive miner hedging
· Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebound ahead of April US jobs report
· Currencies: The US dollar firmed slightly ahead of today’s US jobs data
· Commodities: Fading optimism lifts crude and gold, while cocoa surges on El Niño fears