Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3920 - 1.4170
Euro 1.5970 - 1.6220
Sterling 1.8630 - 1.8880
WTI Oil (opening level) $90.04
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4039 ( 0.7123 )
USD/CAD pair keeps a bullish near-term bias above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3953 and the mid-range 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3992. Spot prices press into overhead Fibonacci resistance, with the 61.8% retracement at 1.4052, which, if cleared, would open the way toward the next resistance cluster around the 78.6% retracement at 1.4138, where bullish momentum would face a more substantial test.
On the downside, immediate demand is seen at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3992, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3953, where a deeper pullback could find buyers ahead of the 38.2% level at 1.3932 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.3857.
Headlines
· Trump will address the UN today and may meet Iran’s President Pezeshkian, other Gulf leaders, and China’s Xi, as the US proposes a $5bn Middle East reconstruction fund. Saudi crude flows through Hormuz have reached about 2.9mn bpd in the past six days, with tanker capacity at its Gulf terminals at the highest since at least June.
· The Chicago Fed National Activity Index slipped to -0.04 in August 2026 from +0.08 in July, signaling slightly softer growth as production and sales/orders weakened, while employment, consumption, and housing improved modestly. The three-month average edged up to +0.01 from -0.01.
· US St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (non-voter) said that additional rate hikes may be needed to reach the Fed’s inflation goal, and suggested that the current monetary policy level may still be stimulating the US economy. He said it would be “less disruptive” to raise rates earlier and in incremental fashion rather than with larger policy actions later.
Key Points
· Macro: Trump addresses the United Nations before a summit with Xi later this week
· Equities: An artificial intelligence rally carried Wall Street to a record Nasdaq close
· Volatility: Short-dated equity volatility collapsed while the longer volatility curve stayed steep
· Digital Assets: Crypto and crypto-linked shares rallied hard, bitcoin and ether eased overnight
· Commodities: Crude rebound weighs on gold as copper nears record high
· Fixed Income: US short-dated yields steady near cycle highs, longer yields eased slightly
· Currencies: USD sideways, JPY edges weaker. NZD rallies on RBNZ rhetoric.