Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3620-1.3870
Euro 1.6090-1.6340
Sterling 1.8530-1.8780
WTI Oil (opening level) $96.17
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3741 ( 0.7278 )
USD/CAD saw weakness from the USD as markets scale back hawkish Federal Reserve bets, with easing inflation risks tied to a potential long-term US–Iran ceasefire, and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pressured oil prices.
Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority for his Liberal government on Monday, strengthening his ability to advance legislation aimed at navigating a more divided geopolitical landscape. The victory gives Carney’s Liberals 172 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.
Headlines
· The US and Iran are weighing further talks on a longer-term ceasefire before the two-week truce ends. Trump said Tehran initiated contact, while President Pezeshkian expressed conditional readiness for dialogue. Earlier 21-hour talks failed, leading to a US oil blockade of Iranian ports. OPEC+ output fell 7.9 million barrels per day in March due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown.
· RBA’s Hauser said rates must bring inflation back to the 2–3% target, but the board lacks high confidence they’re at the right level amid a Middle East oil shock and still-high inflation.
· Australia’s NAB Business Confidence survey suffered an historic collapse on a scale not seen since the outbreak of the Covid pandemic, likely as energy prices spiked and fuel shortage concerns weighed on the Iran war during the month. While the Business Conditions portion of the survey was steady at a reading of 6, the Business Confidence reading plunged to -29 from a reading of -1 in February.
· UK like-for-like retail sales rose 3.1% YoY in March 2026, beating the 0.9% forecast and February’s 0.7%, the strongest since April 2025, helped by an early Easter. Food sales jumped 6.8% vs a 2.6% 12-month average, while non-food rose 0.9%, below its 1.1% average, with clothing and footwear still weak. Middle East–related travel uncertainty hurt travel goods, and the outlook remains uncertain.
· Saudi Arabia’s oil supply slid to 7.76 mb/d in March 2026, the lowest since June 2020 and down from 10.11 mb/d in February amid conflict-related disruptions and a six-week Hormuz closure. Regional output from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE also fell. OPEC cut its Q2 demand outlook by 500,000 b/d but kept its full-year forecast ahead of a May 3 review.
· Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran war’s energy shock has not shifted long-run inflation expectations and still expects inflation to return to target within a year.
· China’s export growth slowed sharply in March, with shipments rising just 2.5% year-on-year, while imports surged by 28%. This left the trade surplus at USD 51 billion—less than half the USD 107 billion expected. The divergence was driven by a jump in imports of refined oil products and other commodities, alongside strong demand for high-tech goods, where imports rose nearly 30% in the first quarter of 2026. Some of the weakness in export growth likely reflects seasonal distortions linked to the timing of the Lunar New Year.
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. stocks pushed higher, while Europe and Asia turned cautious again as oil and Iran headlines kept driving the tape.
· Volatility: Geopolitics, oil sensitivity, earnings season, software resilience
· Digital Assets: BTC/ETH steady, IBIT/ETHA flows, crypto equities firm
· Fixed Income: Yields ease lower on drop in energy prices
· Currencies: USD sold off as global risk sentiment brightens. JPY outperformed early Tuesday
· Commodities: Oil slips as US, Iran weigh more talks; copper at one-month high, gold rangebound