Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3810-1.4060
Euro 1.5950 -1.6200
Sterling 1.8690 -1.8940
WTI Oil (opening level) $84.26
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3933 ( 0.7177 )
Spot gold traded back above USD 4,400 for the first time in two months before softening in response to renewed headwinds from rising oil prices, firmer bond yields and a stronger dollar. Ahead of Wednesday’s key US CPI print, technical focused traders are now watching the 200-day moving average just below USD 4,500 to determine the strength of last week's breakout and 7% rally.
Headlines
· Uncertainty over a US–Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has grown after Trump demanded compensation for victims of Iranian-backed conflicts, responding to Tehran’s reparations demands. The tougher stance lowers chances of a near-term agreement and keeps markets wary, as Iran ties any Hormuz deal with Oman to a broader accord with the US and Trump opts for economic pressure over new strikes.
· China’s Communist Party leadership vowed more proactive macro policy, faster deployment of fiscal funds and bond proceeds, continued support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, and stronger efforts to boost still-weak domestic demand.
· A lesser known UK labour market survey, the REC-KPMG & S&P Global monthly report issued late Sunday, suggested that hiring may be turning a corner to the positive side as the overall Permanent Placements index rose to exactly 50, the first time in a non-contracting level since late 2022.
Key Points
· Macro: A four-day climb in crude revived inflation worry just as Trump hardened his terms with Tehran
· Equities: US stocks edged lower, Europe held near records, while Asia was mixed as oil and inflation risks stayed in focus
· Volatility: Equity vol stayed calm while the volatility bid moved into gold, silver and rates
· Digital Assets: Crypto equities sold off before an after-hours data-centre lease reset the miner story
· Commodities: Gold hits two-month high despite renewed oil strength as deal remains elusive
· Fixed Income: Global bond yields jumped on the crude oil price surge Monday
· Currencies: Sterling firmer on labour market data, USD sideways, JPY lower