Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3710-1.3960
Euro 1.6080-1.6330
Sterling 1.8370-1.8620
WTI Oil (opening level) $96.31
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3836 ( 0.7227 )
Earlier this week, Iran delivered a 10-point proposal to the US in consideration of a permanent ceasefire after agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, along with a two-week truce.
On the domestic front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published this morning. The inflation data would influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
In Canada, investors will focus on the labor market data, which will be released this morning. The data is expected to show that the economy created 15K new jobs after firing 83.9K workers in February. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have increased to 6.8% from the previous reading of 6.7%.
Headlines
· US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Powell summoned major US bank CEOs to a special meeting to warn of and discuss the risks stemming from a new agentic AI model released by Anthropic called Mythos, one that can identify and exploit vulnerabilities in internet browsers and computer operating systems.
· An Iranian delegation arrived in Islamabad Pakistan for negotiations with the US as a shaky “cease-fire” continues through perhaps the April 22 time frame, with US President Trump stepping up rhetoric against Iran’s intent to collect tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz while also attempting to browbeat European allies into participating in security arrangements for the strait.
· Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israeli operations in Lebanon are outside the US–Iran truce, even as Washington pursues broader ceasefire talks. Trump warned Iran over Hormuz transit fees while the strait remains mostly shut. Saudi Arabia reported a 600,000-bpd capacity loss and damage to a key bypass pipeline.
· US PCE prices rose 0.4% month-on-month, the fastest in a year, as goods prices jumped 0.7% and services slowed to 0.2%. Core PCE also increased 0.4%. Year-on-year, headline PCE hit 2.8% and core held at 3.0%.
· US personal income fell 0.1% in February 2026, the first drop since May 2025 and below expectations for a 0.3% gain, as dividend income and transfer receipts declined. Wages, salaries, and farm income rose, but nominal and real disposable income still fell 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.
· US personal spending rose 0.5% in February 2026, up from a revised 0.3% in January, led by stronger goods and services outlays, but inflation-adjusted spending increased only 0.1%.
· US GDP grew at a 0.5% annualized rate in Q4 2025, revised down from 0.7% and 1.4% on weaker investment and softer consumer spending. Government spending dropped sharply amid the shutdown, subtracting about 1 percentage point from growth. Full-year 2025 growth was 2.1%..
Key Points
· Equities: Wall Street extended gains, Europe paused after a sharp rally, and Asia slipped as profit-taking followed earlier optimism.
· Volatility: VIX lower, CPI focus, expected move compressing
· Digital Assets: consolidation, mixed ETF flows, IBIT inflows, ETHA cautious
· Fixed Income: US Treasury yields steady ahead of US March CPI release Friday
· Currencies: US dollar rebounds slightly after weakness Thursday. JPY remains weak.
· Commodities: BCOM set for weekly loss led by energy; gold’s rebound extends to a third week; wheat tumbles