Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3940-1.4190
Euro 1.6110 -1.6360
Sterling 1.8820-1.9070
WTI Oil (opening level) $76.13
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4060 ( 0.7119 )
Oil fell close to 5%, its lowest since 10 July, as Hormuz deal optimism intensified; it extended losses overnight below $75 after Axios reported Washington, Tehran and Oman were nearing an agreement to reopen the strait, with a Wednesday announcement targeted.
Gold rose 1.4% overnight to around $4,179/oz, extending Monday's advance alongside Treasuries as easing Middle East tensions and falling real yields supported the metal's dual role as inflation hedge and safe haven; silver and platinum firmed on the same bid.
Headlines
· US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, noting that some ships are already transiting the strait.
· Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.4% year-on-year in June 2026, slightly above May’s revised 3.3% and in line with forecasts. It was the 54th consecutive month of nominal wage growth and the fifth with gains above 3%. Base pay also increased 3.4%. Real wages rose 1.6% for a sixth month, bolstering the case for further central bank rate hikes.
· New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 5.6% in Q2, the highest since 2015 and above expectations for an unchanged 0.4%. Employment was steady at 66.7%, and the increase in the participation rate by 0.3% to 70.7% was the chief driver of the gain in the unemployment rate. Underutilisation climbed to 13.8%, signaling more labour market slack.
· US factory orders fell 0.3% in June 2026 to $656.5 billion after a 1.1% drop in May, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise. Non-durable goods orders fell 1.2%, while durable goods rose 0.5%, with gains in machinery and electronics offset by weaker fabricated metals and transportation equipment.
· US job quits rose by 79,000 to 3.23 million in June 2026, led by leisure and hospitality, trade/transportation/utilities, and construction. The quits rate stayed at 2.0%, near its lowest since 2020, indicating workers remain cautious about changing jobs.
· US job openings fell by 178,000 to 7.36 million in June 2026, below expectations. Hires held at 5.3 million and separations at 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.
· US imports fell 1.8% in June 2026 to $388 billion, with goods down on weaker capital and consumer goods, partly offset by more telecom equipment. Services imports rose slightly, led by intellectual property, transport, and insurance, while travel decline.
Key Points
· Macro: Hopes for a Hormuz shipping deal set the tone ahead of a data-heavy, payrolls-capped week.
· Equities: US and European equities reached records, while Asia rebounded sharply as technology shares and lower oil prices lifted sentiment.
· Volatility: Vol firmed even as equities hit records, with hedging building ahead of this week's data.
· Digital Assets: Crypto equities advanced as ETF inflows offset a miner earnings miss and fresh hacking headlines.
· Commodities: Oil extended its slide on Hormuz hopes while copper held near a two-month high.
· Fixed Income: US treasuries rallied strongly on Tuesday as crude oil prices fell sharply
· Currencies: USD weaker on easing geopolitical tensions, lower crude oil prices and lower US treasury yields.