Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3560-1.3810
Euro 1.5590-1.5840
Sterling 1.8050-1.8300
WTI Oil (opening level) $97.39
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3680 ( 0.7310 )
Canada’s economy lost -83.9k jobs in February vs. -24.8k in January, concentrated in full-time positions, and the unemployment rate rose 0.2pts to 6.7%.
Canada February CPI is due today. Consensus see headline CPI dropping to 1.9% y/y vs. 2.3% in January due to favorable base effects. Core CPI (average of trim and median) is expected at 2.35% y/y vs. 2.45% in January.
Canada’s stable inflation backdrop gives the BOC a small cushion to look through the oil-price shock and refrain from raising rates in the face of a worsening labor market.
Headlines
· US strikes hit Kharg Island as war in Iran continues. Trump warned Iran's energy infrastructure could be targeted if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. While traders await a US-led coalition to escort ships, the IEA said oil from a record reserve release will soon reach Asia.
· Trump said he is “demanding” that other countries contribute to the defense of Strait of Hormuz as it remains effectively closed to oil tankers. In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said he could delay his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help unblock strait. He also warned in that interview that NATO would face a “very bad” future if member states fail to help in Hormuz.
· The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 55.5 in March 2026 due to the US-Iran conflict and rising gas prices, marking a three-month low. Nationwide personal finance expectations fell 7.5%, while inflation expectations held at 3.4%.
· US GDP grew an annualised 0.7% in Q4 2025, revised down from 1.4% and the weakest since Q1’s contraction, amid lower exports, consumption, government spending and investment, while imports fell by less than first estimated.
· China's economy rebounded in early 2026 with a surprising uptick in domestic consumption and investment, but this acceleration may be hard to sustain due to the war in Iran. Industrial output climbed 6.3% in January-February from a year earlier, while retail sales rose 2.8% and fixed-asset investment expanded 1.8%, with infrastructure investment surging 11.4%.
Key Points
· Equities: Oil-driven inflation fears hit the U.S. and Europe, while Asia also fell as energy risks and rate worries tightened sentiment
· Volatility: Middle East conflict, oil above $100, inflation concerns, central-bank week ahead
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin near $74k, short-liquidation rebound, IBIT and ETHA inflows supportive
· Fixed Income: Long European yields saw highest weekly close since 2011.
· Currencies: Euro broadly week, JPY firms on verbal intervention, AUD firms ahead of possible RBA rate hike
· Commodities: Crude rises on tightening supply outlook, precious metals pressured by profit-taking and stronger dollar