Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3610-1.3860
Euro 1.5760-1.6010
Sterling 1.8230-1.8480
WTI Oil (opening level) $91.06
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3736 ( 0.7280 )
The slump in precious metals continue with gold trading as low as USD 4,100 overnight -after its steepest weekly decline since 1983- as the Middle East conflict triggers a broad macroeconomic shock and forces a repricing across global asset markets. Over the past month, oil-driven inflation risks have reversed US rate expectations from cuts to potential hikes. With both bonds and equities under pressure, a stronger dollar and rising volatility have turned gold into a source of liquidity. For now, this dynamic has faded but not removed reasons why gold rose strongly in the past few years.
Gold 200-day moving average at USD 4,090 -a level last touched in late 2023- will act as a line the market will not quickly cross.
Headlines
· Canadian retail sales are estimated to have risen by 0.9% in February 2026, following a 1.1% increase in January. Motor vehicle sales rose by 2%, while gasoline sales fell by 0.4%. Retail turnover grew by 1.5% year-on-year in February.
· Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum (ending late Monday) to Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz or face an attack on Iranian power plants. Iran has signaled it will not back down and will hit energy and IT infrastructure belonging to the US and Israel.
· Israel said it had begun “a wave of extensive strikes targeting infrastructure” in Iran, with large explosions heard in Tehran.
· Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if President Trump targets Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will close until repairs are made, and Israeli power plants and infrastructure will be targeted.
· The UK's order book balance improved to -27 in March 2026, surpassing expectations. Industrial orders are declining at the slowest rate since September. Output expectations rose to -3, and price growth eased to +12. CBI economist Cameron Martin warned of rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions due to the Middle East conflict.
Key Points
· Equities: Global stocks fell as the US and Europe closed lower and Asia sold off sharply on rising energy and rate fears.
· Volatility: Iran risk, oil-driven inflation fears, post-expiry repositioning, PMI data focus
· Digital Assets: risk-off tone, bitcoin relative strength, IBIT/ETHA outflows
· Fixed Income: Global bonds under massive pressure on inflationary fears, US & European yields hitting new cycle highs.
· Currencies: USD bounces back, but sees little safe haven appeal. AUD weak
· Commodities: Gold pressured by liquidity demand; energy prices remain supported as Hormuz tensions escalate