Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3980-1.4230
Euro 1.5910-1.6160
Sterling 1.8610-1.8860
WTI Oil (opening level) $81.66
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4107 ( 0.7089 )
USD/CAD pair wobbles near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.4103, suggesting a sideways trend.
The Relative Strength Index has drifted back toward neutral territory, hinting that upside momentum has cooled but not reversed, leaving scope for a gradual grind higher while the price stays supported by the short-term EMA.
On the downside, the area between 1.3962 and 1.4001 would be the key demand zone for the pair. Looking up, the pair needs a decisive break above the July 14 high at 1.4157 to revisit the yearly high at 1.4248.
Headlines
· The chip selloff went global overnight. Mounting doubts over returns on AI capital spending sent semiconductors lower for a third session, with MSCI's Asia Pacific gauge dropping as much as 3.6% to its lowest since May. Nvidia's fresh round of deals worth more than 750 billion dollars has raised questions over circular funding, and a report that a Chinese state-backed firm has begun mass-producing immersion DUV lithography machines added a competitive threat.
· The US paused strikes against Iran for a third night. President Trump said the two sides are in talks and there is a "good chance" of a deal, while warning fighting would resume without one. Iranian and Omani negotiators are separately seeking to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
· Data were mixed. US durable goods orders rose 0.3% in June to 334.8 billion dollars, below the 1.6% forecast, though core capital goods climbed 0.9% on AI-related and defence spending. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index edged up to 1.3 from 0. UK shop price inflation slowed to 0.9% year-on-year, the weakest since December 2025.
Key Points
· Macro: AI spending doubts drove a global chip selloff while the Iran de-escalation kept pulling oil lower
· Equities: US and Europe held up as lower oil helped, while Asia’s semiconductor sell-off deepened sharply
· Volatility: Index vol stayed calm while tech vol did the work; oil vol deflated sharply
· Digital Assets: Ether-linked equities led Monday's rally before spot slipped with the tech risk-off
· Commodities: Crude oil stabilizes, gold under pressure as USD rebounds ahead of FOMC tomorrow.
· Fixed Income: US treasuries steady on crude oil retreat, awaiting FOMC
· Currencies: US dollar rebounds, awaiting FOMC, Swiss franc weak