Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4020 - 1.4270
Euro 1.6010 - 1.6260
Sterling 1.8630 - 1.8880
WTI Oil (opening level) $92.49
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4147 ( 0.7068)
USD/CAD maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and well above the Bollinger Bands’ lower band, keeping the broader uptrend intact.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band at 1.3930 only in a corrective scenario, while the more relevant barrier is the upper Bollinger band at 1.4160, where buyers could begin to struggle. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 1.3965, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the Bollinger lower band near 1.3700, where any extended pullback would be expected to attract fresh demand.
Headlines
· Crude prices and a global bond selloff eased as the United States and Iran are weighing a Qatar-mediated phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade, with Tehran seeking control of the strait and reduced US military pressure; the White House says President Trump is open to talks but not under pressure. Houthi militants fired missiles at Saudi cities over the same period.
· Yields on US Treasuries have surged from one high to the next this week, with nearly all benchmark maturities now hovering around or above 5%. The average yield across the USD 32 trillion US Treasury market has risen to 5.05%, while the average yield on government debt globally is approaching 4%, the highest since 2007. The surge has immediate real-world consequences, sharply raising borrowing and refinancing costs for consumers, corporations and governments. The longer yields remain elevated, the greater the squeeze on household finances, corporate investment and already stretched government budgets, increasing the risk that tighter financial conditions eventually translate into a sharper economic slowdown.
· UK GfK consumer confidence improved to -13 in September, the highest since August 2024, though the survey compiler cautioned that rising energy and fuel costs could yet weigh on sentiment.
· Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, citing persistent inflation, while Sweden's Riksbank left rates unchanged, but said that a rate hike would happen this year. Switzerland’s SNB left policy rates unchanged at the remarkable 0.00% level and guided dovish
Key Points
· Macro: Talk of a phased Hormuz deal met another record low reading on American jobless claims
· Equities: A flat headline index masked broad declines while a data centre failure hit software
· Volatility: The volatility impulse landed in rates again, with bond measures jumping and equity gauges calm
· Digital Assets: Crypto slipped for a third session while Britain prepares to open its licensing gateway
· Commodities: Brent pared a sharp geopolitical spike while bullion headed for a weekly loss
· Fixed Income: Fresh highs for the cycle in global bond yields
· Currencies: USD strength slows, JPY firms early Friday after revelation that Trump weighed in on the yen’s weakness.