Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3910-1.4160
Euro 1.5920-1.6170
Sterling 1.8830-1.9080
WTI Oil (opening level) $79.52
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4029 ( 0.7128 )
On the monetary policy front, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in the press conference, after leaving interest rates unchanged at 2.25%, that the central bank might need to raise interest rates if oil prices remain higher.
USD/CAD trades slightly lower at around 1.4030, extending a corrective tone after pulling back from recent highs. The pair now sits beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4107, suggesting a near-term bearish bias as price loses traction relative to the short-term trend benchmark.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.4107, and a sustained recovery above this barrier would be needed to ease the current pressure. On the downside, the pair is expected to extend its decline towards the March 31 high at 1.3967.
Headlines
· US retail sales rose 0.2% in June, matching expectations but marking the weakest monthly gain in five months, while core sales remained relatively firm. Meanwhile, pending home sales fell 5.4%, the sharpest decline since December, as elevated mortgage rates and record home prices continued to weigh on affordability despite a resilient labour market.
· The US–Iran conflict intensified as the US carried out a fifth consecutive day of strikes on Thursday, with an oil tanker hit near Iran’s main export terminal. Iran responded by attacking US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, with the Kuwaiti Armed Forces intercepting 32 Iranian drones targeting "vital" institutions. The exchange of attacks has raised concerns about supplies, with rising energy prices as observable commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slumps.
· UK manufacturing output unexpectedly rose 0.1% month-on-month in May, beating expectations for a 0.2% decline, as gains in machinery, electronics, electrical equipment and chemicals offset weakness in metals and rubber/plastics. Meanwhile, UK GDP grew 0.1% on the month, in line with expectations, as stronger services activity offset declines in production and construction. On an annual basis, manufacturing output increased 2.3%, the fastest pace since March 2024, while GDP rose 1.3%, marking its strongest annual growth since July 2025.
Key Points
· Equities: US and Asian equities fell as chip valuations cracked, while Europe held steady on earnings and takeover activity.
· Volatility: Chip selloff deepened for a second day on AI-spending doubts, lifting VIX and Nasdaq vol, earnings ahead
· Digital Assets: Crypto equities and miners fell with the tech rout while spot held steadier, Citadel backed Crypto.com
· Commodities: Energy and grains lead as metals and softs retreat
· Fixed Income: Front end drives small weekly gains across the US Treasury curve
· Currencies: USD drifts lower for a third week led by CAD, AUD and GBP gains