Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3900-1.4150
Euro 1.6130-1.6380
Sterling 1.8250-1.8800
WTI Oil (opening level) $58.41
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4028 ( 0.7129 )
The US dollar rallied again yesterday, taking EURUSD below 1.1600 before a modest rebound, while the USDJPY rally was rebuffed ahead of 152.20 yesterday before selling off to 151.50 and then rebounding to 151.80 overnight. And the USD also strengthened against the GBP by more than a 1/3%
USD/CAD edges lower as hotter-than-expected inflation and limited BOC easing cap downside, while potential trade and budget developments -in the next couple of weeks- may bolster the Canadian Dollar
Headlines
· UK Sep. CPI out this morning at 0.0% MoM and 3.8% YoY vs. +0.1%/+4.0% expected, respectively and vs. 3.8% YoY in Aug. UK Sep. Core CPI out at 3.5% YoY vs. 3.7% expected and 3.6% in Aug, while UK Sep. Services CPI out at 4.7% vs. 4.8% expected and 4.7% in Aug.
· Trump predicted an upcoming meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, would yield a “good deal” on trade while also saying the highly anticipated talks may not happen. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with his Chinese counterparts to discuss a de-escalation of trade tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi talks
· The ECB's pre-meeting blackout begins Thursday before its rate decision. The US dollar gained on easing US-China tensions and hopes of ending the government shutdown. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier Lifeng will meet to discuss tariffs. Traders bet on policy easing by the ECB and Fed.
· Japan's exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in September 2025, the first increase since April but below the expected 4.6%. Historically, exports averaged 7.81% annually from 1964 to 2025, peaking at 89.20% in August 1974 and hitting a low of -49.40% in February 2009.
· Canada's inflation rose to 2.4% in September 2025, exceeding the expected 2.3% and marking a high since February. Gasoline deflation eased, raising transportation costs by 1.5%. Food inflation climbed to 3.8% due to higher grocery prices, especially for vegetables and sugar. Inflation increased for household operations and recreation, while mean core inflation remained at a one-year high of 3.2%.
· Taiwanese export orders surged 30.5% year-on-year to USD 70.2 billion in September 2025, well above the expected 17.8%, due to strong AI demand. Orders rose for various products, including electronics and machinery, with significant rebounds for electrical machinery and minerals. Textile orders still fell. Exports increased notably to ASEAN, the US, Japan, and Europe.
· Trump does not want to have “a wasted meeting” with putin, the latest sign that a planned second summit between the two leaders in Hungary could be in jeopardy.
Key Points
· Equities: Dow hit a record on earnings; Europe nudged higher on aerospace and luxury; Asia firm with Hong Kong up and Japan near records.
· Volatility: VIX in high teens. Earnings & macro in focus
· Digital assets: IBIT inflows. ETHA/alt-coins quietly trading. institutional test-phase
· Currencies: USD firm, while SEK and NOK rally against the Euro.
· Commodities: Gold and silver find fresh support in Asia after steepest selloff in years
· Fixed Income: Us yield curve flattens with 10-year