Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3670-1.3920
Euro 1.6000-1.6250
Sterling 1.8460-1.8710
WTI Oil (opening level) $62.86
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3793 ( 0.7250 )
USD/CAD traded around 1.3800 overnight. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the pair moves sideways within an ascending channel pattern, indicating that market sentiment is bullish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is positioned slightly above the 50 level, indicating a bullish bias is active. Additionally, the USD/CAD pair has moved above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average, suggesting the short-term price momentum is strengthening.
On the upside, the USD/CAD pair may explore the region around the four-month high at 1.3924, which was recorded on August 22, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3960. A break above this crucial resistance zone would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to test the five-month high at 1.4016, which was reached on May 13.
The pair is testing its immediate support at the psychological level of 1.3800, aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.3797 and followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.3780. A break below these levels would weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and prompt the pair to test the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3750, followed by the two-month low of 1.3721, which was recorded on August 7.
Headlines
· US private businesses added 54K jobs in August 2025, below the 65K forecast, following +106K in July. Leisure and hospitality led gains, amid a general hiring slowdown. The service sector gained 42K jobs; goods-producing added 13K, while manufacturing lost 7K jobs. Early strong job growth has been disrupted by uncertainty.
· US will lower tariffs on Japanese auto imports to 15% by month's end, per an executive order by President Trump, Reuters reported. This formalizes a July trade agreement with Tokyo, easing negotiations and reducing uncertainty for Japan's auto industry.
· Japan's nominal wages rose 4.1% in July 2025, exceeding the 3% forecast. Real wages increased 0.5% for the first time since December, aided by steady pay and bonuses, but high prices persisted. Consumer inflation hit 3.6%, above the 2% target. Major firms agreed to pay hikes over 5% in spring talks.
· The ISM Services PMI increased to 52 in August 2025, surpassing the forecast of 51 and marking the highest growth in six months. Business activity, new orders, and inventories saw faster growth. However, employment contracted (46.5), backlog of orders hit a 16-year low (40.4), and prices remained elevated (69.2).
· The US trade gap widened to $78.3 billion in July 2025, exceeding forecasts of $75.7 billion. Exports grew 0.3% to $280.5 billion, while imports rose 5.9% to $358.8 billion. Gains in nonmonetary gold and civilian aircraft contrasted with declines in finished metal shapes and pharmaceutical preparations.
· US initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000 in late August, exceeding expectations of 230,000. Continuing claims fell to 1,940,000, the lowest in five months, below forecasts of 1,960,000. The report indicates a softening labor market, supporting the Fed's view on potential rate cuts.
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. hit records on softer labor and firm services; Europe edged higher as yields eased and travel slumped; Asia mixed with Japan up and China/HK softer on cooling-measures chatter
· Volatility: VIX mid-teens • jobs report risk • SPX move ±37 pts
· Digital Assets: BTC steady • ETH flat • IBIT inflows • ETHA outflows • SEC reform talk
· Fixed Income: US and Japanese treasury yields lower ahead of key US employment report today
· Currencies: USD edges lower after soft payrolls data
· Commodities: Third weekly gain led by gold, silver, zinc, natural gas and diesel