Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3560-1.3810
Euro 1.6020-1.6270
Sterling 1.8460-1.8710
WTI Oil (opening level) $63.78
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3685 ( 0.7307 )
The lower Oil prices are acting as a headwind for the Canadian Dollar’s recovery. The price of the benchmark US WTI crude barrel has bounced up from weekly lows but remains more than $2 below last week's highs above $66.00, weighed by easing supply concerns as tensions between the US and Iran de-escalate.
Headlines
· The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI dropped to 46.4, below the neutral 50.0 for a third month. Services declined to 45.8, driving the slump, while manufacturing stabilised. New business fell for the 14th month, affecting output. Employment saw a slight decline, and business confidence weakened. Input cost inflation eased, but output charges remained steady.
· US private businesses added 22K jobs in January, led by health care with 74K. Medium-sized firms gained 37K jobs, while large employers lost 18K. Professional services dropped 57K jobs, and manufacturing fell 8K. Job creation slowed in 2025 to 398K from 771K in 2024, with stable wage growth, per ADP's Dr. Nela Richardson. US private businesses added 22K jobs, led by health care with 74K. Medium-sized firms gained 37K jobs, while large employers lost 18K. Professional services dropped 57K jobs, and manufacturing fell 8K. Job creation slowed in 2025 to 398K from 771K in 2024, with stable wage growth, per ADP's Dr. Nela Richardson.
· Trump and President Xi discussed trade, military, and Trump's China visit in a call. Xi stressed positive US relations and caution on Taiwan. VP Vance proposed a critical minerals trade bloc, and USTR Greer will detail the agreement.
· US ISM Services PMI stayed at 53.8 in January 2026, beating the 53.5 forecast. Business activity grew, but new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries slowed. Inventories and backlogs contracted, while price pressures increased. ISM's Steve Miller noted tariff impacts and geopolitical tensions affecting pricing.
· US Services PMI increased to 52.7 in January 2026 from 52.5, marking three years of growth. Domestic sales offset tariff-related foreign softness and marginally increased employment. Higher payroll costs and tariffs raised input inflation. Business confidence dipped to a three-month low.
· Tehran will engage in talks with Washington on Friday in Oman, easing concerns over oil disruptions. Iran seeks to focus on nuclear issues, while the US wants to also address missiles, regional militancy, and human rights
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. tech sold off on chips and capex fears, Europe mixed with sharp stock dispersion, Asia steady on China services optimism.
· Volatility: Short-dated volatility elevated as central banks and U.S. data keep investors cautious.
· Digital assets: Crypto weaker; IBIT and ETHA soft as risk appetite remains fragile.
· Currencies: USD sees new and broad comeback. EURUSD threatening local support.
· Commodities: Fresh silver slump on souring sentiment in Asia; a record weekly stockpile draw expected in natural gas.
· Fixed income: Long Japanese government bonds find buyers, US treasuries steady.