Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3650-1.3900
Euro 1.6110-1.6360
Sterling 1.8550-1.8800
WTI Oil (opening level) $91.29
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3776 ( 0.7259 )
Headlines
· The US and Iran are preparing for a second round of peace talks in the coming days, with Tehran reportedly considering a pause in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to smooth negotiations. The US meanwhile is pressing ahead with a naval blockade of Hormuz to curb Iran's oil exports, with more than 20 non-Iran linked commercial ships transiting the strait in the last day, a notable pickup.
· Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the energy price surge from the Iran war may push back interest rate cuts.
· ECB President Christine Lagarde said higher energy costs have pushed the euro zone away from the central bank's baseline outlook, though not enough to warrant raising interest rates.
· BoJ officials are likely to consider raising their inflation forecast sharply at this month's policy meeting.
· US producer prices rose 0.5% m/m in March 2026, below the 1.1% forecast. Goods prices jumped 1.6% on an 8.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict, while food fell 0.3% and services were flat. PPI climbed 4% y/y, and core PPI (excluding food, energy, trade) rose 0.2% m/m and 3.6% y/y.
· The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing fallout from the Middle East conflict, but kept 2027 at 3.2%. It says the Iran-related energy shock rivals 1974’s in scale but notes greater resilience. It now projects 2026–27 growth of 2.3% and 2.1% for the US, 4.4% and 4.0% for China, 1.1% and 1.2% for the Euro Area, 0.8% and 1.3% for the UK, and 0.7% and 0.6% for Japan, with global inflation edging up in 2026 before easing in 2027.
· Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US economy remains strong and expects growth could exceed 3% to 3.5% this year despite the Iran war.
Key Points
· Equities: Wall Street neared records, Europe cheered lower oil, and Asia stayed firm as chip demand kept risk appetite alive.
· Volatility: Iran talks, PPI relief, VIX easing
· Digital Assets: Risk-on tone, IBIT/ETHA strength, crypto equities outperform
· Fixed Income: Global yields ease back as crude oil prices drop. US treasury yields hit more than three-week lows.
· Currencies: US dollar sells off, with EURUSD, GBPUSD and other USD pairs trading near levels prevailing before war in Iran broke out.
· Commodities: Crude falls on peace talk optimism; copper surges on supply constraints while gold tests resistance