Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3820-1.4070
Euro 1.5950-1.6200
Sterling 1.8500-1.8750
WTI Oil (opening level) $91.54
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3939 ( 0.7174 )
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has reignited expectations that the US Federal Reserve may raise the interest rate later this year, lifting the USD against all majors. Markets are now pricing in more than a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December, sharply up from a 45% probability a week ago.
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades with a clear bullish bias, holding well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band at 1.3950, and a decisive daily close above this barrier would pave the way to the 1.4000 psychological level. On the downside, initial support is located at the June 4 low of 1.3881. The next contention level is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 1.3805, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3722, with the lower Bollinger Band around 1.3660 acting as a deeper cushion if a corrective pullback unfold
Headlines
· Israel struck several military targets in Iran, retaliating after Iran launched missile barrages toward Israel, warning against action in Lebanon and straining a fragile ceasefire. Israel said all were intercepted with no casualties. Trump reportedly criticized Israel’s Beirut strikes, urged Netanyahu not to retaliate, and pressed Iran to resume talks. The exchange is one of the most serious tests of a ceasefire that took effect on April 8 to halt fighting involving the US, Israel and Iran
· South Korean stocks, the posterchild of AI concentration risk tumbled more than 8%, extending a three-day decline to 13.5%, as investors pulled back from AI bets that have fuelled the global bull market in equities. The benchmark later narrowed its drop as memory makers Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. rebounded from session lows
· Japan's real GDP expanded at an annualized pace of 1.8% in the first quarter, down from an initial reading of 2.1%. The rate which beat forecasts still points to a largely resilient economy supported by solid consumer spending and trade, with demand for artificial intelligence-related products providing a key boost for exports.
· The US added 172K jobs in May 2026, beating 85K forecasts and following a revised 179K gain. Leisure and hospitality, local government, health care, and manufacturing added jobs, while financial activities lost 22K. Revisions raised March–April employment by 93K, underscoring labor market resilience.
· The US unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% in May 2026, as expected. Unemployment fell by 66K, employment rose by 149K, labor force participation held at 61.8%, the employment rate edged up to 59.2%, and the U-6 rate dipped to 8.1%.
· Andy Burnham plans to challenge Keir Starmer for UK prime minister, contingent on winning the June 18 Makerfield by-election to enter Parliament. Starmer says he will not step down. Markets expect nearly two BoE rate hikes this year, starting in September.
Key Points
· Equities: US tech led the selloff, Europe held up better, while Asia saw heavy pressure in chip-heavy markets.
· Volatility: VIX +39.7%, CPI/PPI ahead, Middle East tensions, downside skew
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin rebounds, ETF outflows, defensive positioning
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields rose to highest level in more than a year at front-end of yield curve on strong US jobs report
· Currencies: USD surged Friday to highest levels since early April on strong US jobs report
· Commodities: Gold breaks key support on inflation and rate fears; oil underpinned by renewed Middle East tensions