Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3800-1.4000
Euro 1.5950 -1.6200
Sterling 1.8710 -1.8960
WTI Oil (opening level) $83.68
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3921 ( 0.7183 )
CAD benefits from higher Oil prices, while the resilience of the USD limits the downside.
Crude Oil prices remain supported by concerns over supply in the Middle East. The standoff between the USA and Iran is dampening hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains disrupted. These tensions are fueling concerns about global supply and supporting Oil prices, a generally positive factor for the Canadian Dollar given the significant role of energy in Canada's exports.
Headlines
· Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays shut until its demands are met, keeping a bid under crude for a fifth session. Pakistan's defence minister said the US and Iran are reportedly "close to some sort of arrangement" and even after both sides appeared to toughen their positions in the long-deadlocked negotiations
· The US July NFIB Small Business Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, the highest since August 2025, with 8 of 10 components improving as hiring plans surged and inflation pressures eased. Meanwhile,
· US July CPI lands today and may be the session's swing variable. Consensus looks for a 0.1% moM rise and 3.4% YoY rise in the headline, and 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY for the core CPI, both 0.1% lower than June.
Key Points
· Macro: A closed Strait of Hormuz kept crude bid while markets waited on the July inflation print
· Equities: US stocks slipped before CPI, Europe held near records, Asia was mixed as a Korean chip rebound offset Hong Kong weakness.
· Volatility: Event-day volatility repriced sharply into the inflation print while the broader surface eased
· Digital Assets: Crypto held steady before the data while stablecoin and mining equities outperformed
· Commodities: Crude extended a fifth straight advance and gold held near a two-month high
· Fixed Income: US treasuries rallied Tuesday and 3-year auction strong ahead of key US CPI release today.
· Currencies: JPY and CHF weak, USD sideways ahead of key US July CPI release today