Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3670-1.3920
Euro 1.5880-1.6130
Sterling 1.8380-1.8630
WTI Oil (opening level) $87.26
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3799 ( 0.7247 )
Gold and silver are trading higher, highlighting how the recent sell-off was primarily a liquidity-driven event, amplified by challenging macro conditions. Elevated oil prices have fuelled inflation concerns, reducing rate cut expectations while pushing yields and the dollar higher. A degree of normalization would ease these pressures, allowing investors to refocus on gold’s long-term case, which has been challenged but not removed.
Headlines
· Relief emerged across financial markets after reports that the Trump administration has presented Iran with a 15-point plan to end the war, giving investors a reason to price in the possibility of a pause in hostilities—even if a durable settlement still appears distant. For now, this has become the primary focus, offsetting ongoing escalation risks, including Trump’s deployment of 2,000 troops, Saudi Arabia and the UAE signalling readiness to join the conflict, Tehran showing little willingness to compromise, and Israeli officials maintaining their intent to continue strikes on Iran.
· UK Feb. CPI out early Wednesday saw headline inflation rising 0.4% MoM and 3.0% YoY, both as expected and vs. 3.0% YoY in Jan., while the core CPI data rose 3.2% YoY vs. 3.1% expected and 3.1% in Jan. Services CPI rose 4.3% vs. 4.2% expected and 4.4% in Jan.
· Australia’s Feb. CPI came in slightly softer than expected early Wednesday at 3.7% YoY for the headline (vs. 3.8% expected and 3.8% in Jan) and 3.3% for the core “trimmed mean” measure (vs. 3.4% expected and 3.3% in Jan.). The month-on-month figures were 0.0% for the headline and +0.2% for the trimmed mean
· The US Composite PMI fell to 51.4 in March 2026, its lowest since last April, signalling slowing growth. Business activity hit an 11-month low due to softened orders and price surges. Services led the slowdown, while manufacturing stayed resilient. Confidence weakened, causing the first employment drop in over a year, with sharp input cost rises driving selling prices up.
· The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in March 2026, surpassing expectations. Production and new orders grew, supported by stabilising export demand. Despite slowed employment growth and longer delivery times, business confidence reached a 13-month high amid reduced tariff worries and optimism over domestic demand.
· US nonfarm productivity grew 1.8% in Q4 2025, down from 2.8% estimated, and lower than Q3's 5.2% surge. Manufacturing productivity fell 2.5%. Annually, productivity grew 2.5% in Q4 but slowed to 2.1% for 2025, indicating a deceleration in efficiency gains.
Key Points
· Equities: US softened on oil and software, Europe edged up on semis, and Asia rallied as ceasefire hopes cooled energy fears.
· Volatility: Volatility easing but still elevated
· Digital Assets: Crypto stabilises with risk mood; ETF outflows cap upside
· Fixed Income: Treasury yields ease back on hopes that Trump peace proposal will gain traction
· Currencies: USD mixed with weak correlation to risk sentiment swings on Iran war headlines. AUD weak after soft CPI numbers
· Commodities: Crude eases, gold firms as diplomatic efforts to end the war offer relief