Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4110 - 1.4360
Euro 1.5830 - 1.6080
Sterling 1.8700 - 1.8950
WTI Oil (opening level) $90.58
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4236 ( 0.7024)
All eyes will be on Canada's September employment report coming out this morning
In the daily chart, USD/CAD retains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above both the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger middle band.
On the downside, initial demand is seen at the Bollinger middle band around 1.4125, followed by stronger support at the 100-day MA near 1.4015 and the lower Bollinger band close to 1.3895.
On the topside, the next notable resistance aligns with the upper Bollinger band at roughly 1.4355, where a clear break would open the way to further gains, whereas failure to clear this cap could trigger a corrective pullback toward the aforementioned supports.
Headlines
· Doubts about AI spending moved to the front. Reports put OpenAI's annualised revenue run rate at about USD 50 billion, below previously circulated estimates of close to USD 70 billion, which was cited as reigniting concern over the sustainability of artificial-intelligence capital spending. In our view the read-through into the chip complex was the session's dominant feature.
· The US labour market stayed tight. Initial jobless claims fell 2,000 to 197,000 in the week ended 3 October, the lowest since July and a fourth consecutive week below 200,000, against a consensus of 200,000. Continuing claims rose 17,000 to 1.716 million. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said further rate increases will likely be needed to return inflation to the 2% target in a timely manner, while noting that officials have flexibility on timing and need not tighten at consecutive meetings.
· A supply-side risk and a fiscal warning. Hurricane Isaias, a Category 2 storm with winds reaching 100 mph, is disrupting US offshore oil production and is forecast to reach the Alabama coast or the Florida Panhandle. Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel warned that economic growth alone is unlikely to stabilise the federal debt trajectory, pushing back on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's growth-led fiscal strategy.
· The day ahead. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks, the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment reading for October is due, and August factory orders follow. Next week brings September CPI on Wednesday 14 October and the start of the large US bank reporting season, with the Fed's quiet period beginning on 17 October ahead of the late-October meeting.
Key Points
· Macro: An artificial-intelligence revenue shortfall was cited as reigniting doubts about the spending cycle
· Equities: Chipmakers led a broad technology retreat while European banks and Korean memory names lagged
· Volatility: Short-dated index volatility jumped and the tail-risk gauge steepened while rates volatility eased
· Digital Assets: Tokens firmed overnight but listed miners and exchanges extended a much sharper slide
· Commodities: Gold rebounds, oil eases as commodities head for first weekly gain in three
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields fall after solid demand at 30-year T-bond auction.
· Currencies: USD weakens, JPY weaker still as tax cut bill moves forward in Japan.