Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3740-1.3990
Euro 1.6040 -1.6290
Sterling 1.8770 -1.9020
WTI Oil (opening level) $82.50
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3860 ( 0.7215 )
The Canadian dollar remains under pressure after US-Canada trade talks collapsed and Trump threatened to double auto tariffs.
From a technical perspective, an intraday move above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August decline could be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, momentum indicators are leaning constructive, with the Relative Strength Index and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) readings staying in positive territory. This hints that buyers are attempting to stabilize the USD/CAD pair after its recent pullback and build on the recovery from a multi-month low.
Any subsequent move up, however, might confront an immediate resistance near the 1.3900 mark ahead of the 1.3925-1.3930 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibo. level. A further recovery attempt would face additional supply around the 50.0% level at 1.3988 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.4049. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3852, with a deeper floor emerging at the Fibo. anchor near 1.3731 if selling resumes.
Headlines
· Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods after talks collapsed, prompting Ottawa to vow equal retaliation. President Trump also said tariffs on autos, auto parts and steel will rise to 50% from 1 January 2027. Separately, the US is reportedly planning a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over alleged excess capacity ahead of a Trump-Xi summit next month, a move that would lift the average second-term tariff rate on China back to around 20%.
· The Treasury sanctioned close to 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals and vessels tied to nuclear, missile, cyber and oil networks, extending across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, as well as a network of brokers and shadow-fleet vessels. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that a major financial institution, potentially in China, could be added to the sanctions list this week, raising the risk of secondary effects on trade and financial flows.
· The one piece of US data was soft. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.08 in July from 0.06 in June, with three of its four broad categories deteriorating and personal consumption and housing turning sharply negative. The three-month moving average slipped to -0.04 from 0.01, pointing to a modest loss of economic momentum.
Key Points
· Macro: Washington widens tariffs on Canada and China and sanctions a broad Iranian network
· Equities: US stock-index futures gained as pressure on technology shares eased ahead of key earnings from Nvidia
· Digital Assets: Coins and the large funds advanced while the listed miners went the other way
· Commodities: Gold rally pauses after strong run with crude lower for a second day
· Fixed Income: Yields fell right along the curve on cheaper oil and buyback speculation
· Currencies: The dollar partly recovers from recent losses