Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3870-1.4120
Euro 1.6200-1.6450
Sterling 1.8510-1.8760
WTI Oil (opening level) $60.37
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3998 ( 0.7144 )
USD/CAD trades inside Monday’s trading range around 1.4000. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as key support around 1.3985.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 60.00, indicating that bullish momentum is over for now.
Going forward, an upside move by the pair above the October 14 high of 1.4080 would open the door towards the April 8 low of 1.4144, followed by the April 9 high of 1.4274.
On the flip side, the asset could slide towards the round level of 1.3600 and the June 16 low of 1.3540 if it breaks below the August 7 low of 1.3722.
Headlines
· Canadian PM Carney said Canada is ready to negotiate with the US, and despite no contact since Thursday, emphasized a strong trading relationship and prepared contingency plans if Trump refuses to engage.
· The US Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing index rose to -5.0 in October 2025, still negative. Production stayed at 5.2, indicating low growth. Company outlook flat at -0.3, with uncertainty up to 22.2. New orders at -1.7, capacity utilization at -1.1. Shipments steady at 5.8. Employment improved with the index at 2.0; 18% of firms hired, while 16% laid off. Hours worked dropped to -5.5. Price and wage pressures eased. Six-month expectations stayed positive but softer: future production at 21.0, general activity at 7.0.
· Trump met Japan's new PM, Sanae Takaichi, in Tokyo today to discuss trade and security just after she became Japan’s first female leader. Trump praised Japan’s plans to raise defense spending and the two signed agreements on trade and critical minerals. Trump said that the US and Japan are allies “at the strongest level”.
· The Germany GfK Consumer Confidence survey registered a new seven month low of -24.1 after -22.5 last month, still slightly above the lowest levels of the year in March and April.
· China plans to simplify the qualified foreign investor regime to attract long-term foreign capital, offering easier access and more investment options. The streamlined process includes a "green channel" for certain investors and allows use of ETFs and commodity futures trading. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing aims to make China's capital markets more inclusive and competitive amidst global market shifts.
Key Points
· Equities: Records in the US on U.S.–China trade truce. Europe hit fresh highs led by chips and banks. Asia strong on profit data
· Volatility: Low backdrop, Fed & tech earnings risk, expected SPX move ~±0.3%
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin/Ethereum rebound, ETF flows matter, alt-coins follow risk mood
· Currencies: USD edges weaker, JPY firms with friendly Trump-Takaichi meeting in Tokyo.
· Commodities: Gold punches down to new lows in its correction.
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields reverse back into range