Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3740-1.3990
Euro 1.5920 -1.6180
Sterling 1.8640 -1.8890
WTI Oil (opening level) $85.07
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3863 ( 0.7214 )
The USD/CAD pair defends the 200-day SMA at 1.3848, which keeps the broader bias modestly bullish.
Although downside attempts are being absorbed near the support, a clean break beneath would be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and open the door to a deeper correction. However, holding above it would keep the path of least resistance tilted higher in the near term.
Headlines
· Australia's Aug. Westpac Consumer Confidence rose to 88.9, a five-month high and up from 83.9 in July after scraping near the multi-year lows in April through June.
· US President Trump said he is not interested in extending the 60-day ceasefire deal that technically expired Monday. He repeated the idea of making the Strait of Hormuz a US Territory.
· Canada’s headline inflation rose to 2.9% in July from 2.8% in June, still below the 3.2% post-Iran-war peak. Gasoline inflation climbed to 25.7% on renewed Iran–US tensions. Core inflation inched up (median 2.0%, trimmed 1.9%), with World Cup–driven travel costs surging, while food and shelter inflation eased. Month over month, prices gained 0.5% after a 0.4% decline.
· The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 25 in August 2026 from 34 in July, defying expectations for 33. Current sales conditions rose two points to 39, and sales expectations stayed at 43. Price cuts were reported by 35% of builders (down two points), averaging 6%.
· The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 20.6 in August from 15.6, far above expectations and the strongest since late 2021. New orders and shipments increased, delivery times lengthened, and inventories fell amid worsening supply conditions. Employment edged up, input costs rose, and selling prices stayed elevated, while firms remained optimistic despite modest capex plans.
Key Points
· Macro: Risk sentiment falters on geopolitical tensions and new modern high in US 30-year yield
· Equities: US and European equities slipped as oil and yields rose, Asia turned mixed as Korean chip strength met broader risk-off pressure.
· Volatility: Near-term protection was bid back off the floor as energy and rate volatility climbed
· Digital Assets: Listed crypto proxies rallied hard while the underlying majors drifted quietly sideways
· Commodities: Gold holds despite yield rise, crude firmer on Middle East risk and scarcity keeps copper bid.
· Fixed Income: Global bond markets under pressure on higher energy prices, although auction of 5-year JGB’s drew strong demand.
· Currencies: USD weakness reverses as global risk sentiment softens.